tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4622411633995176328.post5670259062487602795..comments2023-09-29T04:22:59.719-07:00Comments on Average Buyer: Are we there Yet?Buying Timehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04651516505789196067noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4622411633995176328.post-12958181530903146472010-05-17T17:42:27.568-07:002010-05-17T17:42:27.568-07:00I don't think we are there yet. Certain zips w...I don't think we are there yet. Certain zips will fair better or worse than the average of course.<br /><br />Price declines for Sac have increased since the tax credit expired. It will take a few months to see a trend I think. Fall / Winter could devestating to home prices or they could show that the market is improving, we'll find out soon enough.<br /><br />But I think along the lines of husmanen. There are still lots of people out of work and CA has budget problems that won't be fixed anytime soon. So even if the state doesn't shed more jobs they certainly won't be adding very many anytime soon.<br /><br />Next is inventory, there is a ton of shadow inventory out there, until those get sold it will keep prices down. If prices start to go up then we will see a bunch of inventory come out of nowhere to sell at the higher price.<br /><br />I suppose the next question is how much longer interest rates can stay below 6%. As those go up to the 6s and even 7s that will put a hurt on prices for sure.Jacobhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16215833990317515502noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4622411633995176328.post-79548226925667138822010-05-11T08:45:53.589-07:002010-05-11T08:45:53.589-07:00Not a chance.Not a chance.Giacomohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13227656916787125958noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4622411633995176328.post-32079857547568314602010-05-10T21:24:20.615-07:002010-05-10T21:24:20.615-07:00Absolutely not. Still too many underwater borrowe...Absolutely not. Still too many underwater borrowers and inventory that hasn't hit the market.sacramentiahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14025292089760843914noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4622411633995176328.post-49812061480463453202010-05-07T15:13:20.362-07:002010-05-07T15:13:20.362-07:00BT, yes I do get my Trendgraphix data from an Agen...BT, yes I do get my Trendgraphix data from an Agent. Good call.<br /><br />PR. Yes I believe there is constrained supply, not just by the banks but most of the organic sellers that just don't want to put their house on the market for non-bubble asking prices. <br /><br />It hurts too much and could mean they really aren't 'organic' but are actually a short sale. I have seen plenty of Non-REOs and Non-Short Sales finally turn into SS once they hit a market price.husmanenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12133974934289103581noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4622411633995176328.post-79059827233286851022010-05-07T14:55:07.432-07:002010-05-07T14:55:07.432-07:00tax credits has a little to do with it, mortgage r...<i>tax credits has a little to do with it, mortgage rates has a bit more to do with it...but beyond those two...</i><br /><br />...is inventory :)<br /><br />We talk about publicly available quantity, while there is still a private unavailable quantity facilitated by balance sheet swaps that have yet to be unwound.patient renterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17790407105234257876noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4622411633995176328.post-27676154017912502862010-05-07T14:36:41.677-07:002010-05-07T14:36:41.677-07:00Interesting stats Hus. BTW - Where do you get EDH...Interesting stats Hus. BTW - Where do you get EDH specific stats from trendgraphix? an Agent? <br /><br />I seem to remember hearing jumbo mortgage rates have come down...<br /><br />Relatively speaking, I figure, tax credits has a little to do with it, mortgage rates has a bit more to do with it...but beyond those two...I'm just not sure.Buying Timehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04651516505789196067noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4622411633995176328.post-27860248935054109402010-05-07T14:29:09.261-07:002010-05-07T14:29:09.261-07:00Interesting Trendgraphix data for EDH too.
……2010...Interesting Trendgraphix data for EDH too.<br /><br />……2010……….......Jan…Feb.Mar.Apr<br />EDH Equity Sales .17… 16… 30…29. <br />EDH EqPend …….....23….26.…38…33<br /><br />EDH Short Sales…..19.…12.…12.…13<br />EDH SS Pend ….....20….12…..32.50<br /><br />EDH REO Sales.....9.…12.…7.…21<br />EDH REO Pend.....12….6….15.…23<br /><br />Notice the dramatic increase (approx 50%) in Pendings from the Short-Sales and REOs in Apr?<br /><br />Besides the credit what would make the pendings rise so much in March and April?husmanenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12133974934289103581noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4622411633995176328.post-59526552069128515772010-05-07T13:21:15.609-07:002010-05-07T13:21:15.609-07:00BT. I like that you have tried to disperse a poten...BT. I like that you have tried to disperse a potential argument beforehand. I use this method a lot and it tends to work well. My favorite example is from the movie 8 Mile when Eminem used it against his rapping opponent. But I digress.<br /><br />If not tax credits and incentives then what could be causing the increases? Maybe:<br /><br />* Improved overall economy<br />* Improved local economy<br />* Restriction of supply<br />* Increase in demand<br />* Decrease in unemployment<br />* Decrease in potential foreclosures<br />* Increase in move-up buyers<br /><br />Do you think the current average price increases are in line with long term fundamentals? <br /><br />I see evidence of homes I would consider a good value in Folsom/EDH. There are, of course, some sellers bubble dreaming and others testing just above what I would consider good value.<br /><br />Also, could the averages be pushed up by a few very expensive homes selling?husmanenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12133974934289103581noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4622411633995176328.post-48012561188511057932010-05-07T09:43:18.106-07:002010-05-07T09:43:18.106-07:00I'm sure some will argue that its all because ...I'm sure some will argue that its all because of the tax credits. But I will argue back, that I don't think they are relevant in these two zips. 1) Folsom and El Dorado Hills are mainly a move-up community, and 2) the tax credit is a very small proportion of the overall home price, like 1-2%.Buying Timehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04651516505789196067noreply@blogger.com