tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4622411633995176328.post5939820229434864281..comments2023-09-29T04:22:59.719-07:00Comments on Average Buyer: Dogma or Doghouse?Buying Timehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04651516505789196067noreply@blogger.comBlogger48125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4622411633995176328.post-51458356754460209982009-11-30T14:34:55.973-08:002009-11-30T14:34:55.973-08:00if the #2 above drags on forever, it will slow dow...<i>if the #2 above drags on forever, it will slow down the price decline until the time unemployment finally eases and prices do indeed stabilize</i><br /><br />Full employment doesn't effect prices so much as inventory and affordability do (employment was fine when prices first started crashing to hell).patient renterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17790407105234257876noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4622411633995176328.post-21147185661260254552009-11-30T12:00:29.562-08:002009-11-30T12:00:29.562-08:00Giacomo. I agree there is a lot of downsize risk. ...Giacomo. I agree there is a lot of downsize risk. Have you seen Dr. Housing Bubble's latest, scary.husmanenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12133974934289103581noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4622411633995176328.post-15719091064741223182009-11-28T08:38:32.737-08:002009-11-28T08:38:32.737-08:00Housing is not in recovery any more than the econo...Housing is not in recovery any more than the economy is.<br /><br />Government and NAR inventory numbers are mainly tools of persuasion now, rather than data worth analyzing.<br /><br />Likewise, the buyers' tax credits and the mortgage modification programs are just part of the smoke and mirrors; in reality (as PR says), there are still huge numbers of unsustainable loans out there -- even as government-backed loans are STILL being made to unqualified buyers during this phony "bounce."<br /><br />Add to this the effect of a weakened future buyer (faced with higher interest rates and higher taxes), and employers who are afraid to hire (while the rules of the game are in flux), and you see that nothing is in place that would push house prices higher.<br /><br />10% off today's asking price is pitifully little protection against the downside risk.Giacomohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13227656916787125958noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4622411633995176328.post-47864502004972510722009-11-26T02:59:38.364-08:002009-11-26T02:59:38.364-08:00Not sure if I want to wait that long, but while re...Not sure if I want to wait that long, but while renting I'll keep putting offers 10% below asking price on short sales and REOs that I find interesting.radiophilejapanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13793862557207694007noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4622411633995176328.post-84346097281820392422009-11-25T21:29:38.906-08:002009-11-25T21:29:38.906-08:00Non short-sale and non-bank would be considered &#...Non short-sale and non-bank would be considered 'organic' or 'normal', we have a long way to go before we have those buyers back, maybe 2012.husmanenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12133974934289103581noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4622411633995176328.post-32328198275036423792009-11-25T21:08:08.569-08:002009-11-25T21:08:08.569-08:00PR,
I suppose you're referring to:
1. purchase...PR,<br />I suppose you're referring to:<br />1. purchase pull in to take advantage of the 8K credit inflating the recent sales figures.<br />2. Lowering inventory figures don't include the shadow inventory of REOs at banks,and NODs that the banks and the government are avoiding to foreclose.<br />3. End of government purchase of mortgages in Q2 next year will drive mortgages rates up.<br />I agree that all this is still indicating further decline of prices especially at the high end, but if the #2 above drags on forever, it will slow down the price decline until the time unemployment finally eases and prices do indeed stabilize. As far as I am concerned, I won't try to time the market any further. Losing 10% on a purchase now or paying 10% more for the same house a year from now is OK with me. The problem is the lack of non-short sales choices. So I will be patient too and wait until the right home shows up in the market.radiophilejapanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13793862557207694007noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4622411633995176328.post-81755239166146631612009-11-25T09:25:48.637-08:002009-11-25T09:25:48.637-08:00Still lots of conflicting data on the market recov...<i>Still lots of conflicting data on the market recovery</i><br /><br />There's not a lot of conflict when you consider what is directly influencing the "recovery", where the inventory is (not out in public), and what lies ahead (higher rates, pending resets).patient renterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17790407105234257876noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4622411633995176328.post-50396609154836755682009-11-24T19:15:09.640-08:002009-11-24T19:15:09.640-08:00Still lots of conflicting data on the market recov...Still lots of conflicting data on the market recovery (or not). We decided that, short of an outstanding buying opportunity (either THE dream home, or a very good deal US$/sqF) we will be renting the first 6 months to a year. Good rental offers in EDH it seems: newer and large homes with monthly rent around 0.80U$/sqF.<br />Happy Thanksgiving to all, especially to the host of this blog. BT, enjoy your Holidays at your new home. This is priceless.radiophilejapanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13793862557207694007noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4622411633995176328.post-82183713767358631872009-11-23T08:35:34.067-08:002009-11-23T08:35:34.067-08:00Giacamo's point of not wanting to talk about a...Giacamo's point of not wanting to talk about a home purchase in the last year is very true of the entire market, although may not be the case for Average Buyer.<br /><br />Unless someone feels like they got a future price, i.e. 2010 or 2011, then they don't talk about it because prices are still under great pressure to fall to fundamentals. For example, El Dorado County's median fell 25% from a year ago:<br /><br />http://www.sacbee.com/realestatenews/story/2337061.html<br /><br />I personally avoid speaking about RE at social occasions because it can be explosive, literally I have had people get physically upset at me - these are the same people that thought they were the "King of the Bar" and a "genius" just a few years ago.<br /><br />Word Verification: exesseshusmanenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12133974934289103581noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4622411633995176328.post-72782698006347205032009-11-20T21:15:52.051-08:002009-11-20T21:15:52.051-08:00So glad to know BT and her family are well and hap...So glad to know BT and her family are well and happy in their new home.<br /><br />Never did fix the AC in the truck.<br /><br />Wow it rained hard today!<br /><br />Hope Bryan will stay away from poker games.Giacomohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13227656916787125958noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4622411633995176328.post-75640815903194734162009-11-20T14:15:47.069-08:002009-11-20T14:15:47.069-08:00To amuse myself, I've written down a few troll...To amuse myself, I've written down a few trollish things on my notepad here by my computer which I predict Giacomo will say in response. It was pretty easy. You take half-a-cup of self-congratulating sanctimony, a good deal of finger-wagging and economic moralizing, a pinch of defensiveness, and you make sure not to include any self-reflection whatsoever (it's critical that you not know how you sound to other people). Now that I think about it, that comes close to describing me as well. Maybe that's why I found it so easy to channel Giacomo.<br /><br />I was tempted to post my predictions, but then that would only ensure Giacomo would not cooperate, and my pride would go ungratified. But I watch with anticipation.Bryanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08596060773988867285noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4622411633995176328.post-4860934842708928882009-11-20T08:18:39.755-08:002009-11-20T08:18:39.755-08:00Thanks for the inquiries...I know some of you were...Thanks for the inquiries...I know some of you were becoming concerned....it means a lot to me that you checked in.<br />Time is flying by, and I didn't realize how long it had been since posting. Day job is busy, daycare is closing abruptly (not enough enrollement), we are hosting a big Turkey day at our house, and Mr.BT is having a B-day....hopefully I will find some time next week.<br /> <br />Giacomo - I can't tell if you are jealous or really spiteful. I tend toward the latter since you suggested letting your employee go without AC in a Sacramento summer. <br /><br />I am happy for all those who have the fortitude to wait out the market...your patience will certainly be rewarded.....but for us a house is a home not just an asset on the family balance sheet. Please respect that.Buying Timehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04651516505789196067noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4622411633995176328.post-66123532993830441222009-11-19T22:48:51.111-08:002009-11-19T22:48:51.111-08:00It's true that there's been a lot of news ...It's true that there's been a lot of news lately, but I think that informed observers will be interpreting it as mostly BAD -- bad for the economy, bad for a RE "recovery." <br /><br />RE: BT not posting:<br />--if I had bought a house in the last year I wouldn't be in the mood to talk about RE either.Giacomohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13227656916787125958noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4622411633995176328.post-70236107758740033162009-11-18T16:15:25.818-08:002009-11-18T16:15:25.818-08:00I miss them too.I miss them too.husmanenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12133974934289103581noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4622411633995176328.post-77342305317943209442009-11-17T16:12:16.220-08:002009-11-17T16:12:16.220-08:00I am surprised that BT has not posted for a long t...I am surprised that BT has not posted for a long time, given the recent flood of news and articles on the real estate market. It is true though that fundamentally the situation hasn't changed much especially at the higher end of the market. Unemployment still rampant, a wave of new foreclosures looming on the horizon, extension and expansion of the tax credit, etc.<br />On my personal side, none of my offers did go through and I'm back to the drawing board. Did lots of vicarious house visits in GB and Auburn through the real estate agent's eyes and camera, and google earth, but it hasn't yielded anything compelling. Starting to consider EDH. Time is running, will be permanently deployed to the area on Dec 22nd. I miss BT's posts.radiophilejapanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13793862557207694007noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4622411633995176328.post-1905774736273175522009-11-06T16:20:02.648-08:002009-11-06T16:20:02.648-08:00Did you see 2432 Telegraph-Hill Rd, EDH has droppe...Did you see 2432 Telegraph-Hill Rd, EDH has dropped the price even further. <br /><br />Now it is at $374,900. <br /><br />Should we throw out some guesses on what it will eventually sell for? My guess, $315k. <br /><br />Anyone?husmanenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12133974934289103581noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4622411633995176328.post-65085706614679335932009-11-05T16:00:27.642-08:002009-11-05T16:00:27.642-08:00RV6
That is exactly what I am doing using SAS.
...RV6 <br />That is exactly what I am doing using SAS. <br /><br />Someday I'll be able to publish measures and be famous but for now I think of it as the Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle of Real Estate. We can know the price or the direction but never both >; )Deflationary Janehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05567875697563069042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4622411633995176328.post-82327836785225007172009-10-28T22:42:49.228-07:002009-10-28T22:42:49.228-07:00"DJ. I like the momentum concept. I use Enter..."DJ. I like the momentum concept. I use Enterprise Guide nowadays, so much easier that ‘normal’ SAS. But that is a different subject. Usually I have to push the data to Excel in the end anyway to make some good graphs. But I will keep the momentum idea in mind."<br /><br />DJ and BT, how do you calculate momentum? Are you compiling price or rent data into SAS or excel to come up with a function with which you can multiply inventory with the first derivative? I have never put much thought into price momentum or stochastics on rents, but I like the idea as a good indicator of overall economic health for a region or neighborhood.<br /><br />verification "prici"RV6Flyerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05656808457923404555noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4622411633995176328.post-76210808789492253532009-10-27T09:04:07.488-07:002009-10-27T09:04:07.488-07:00Rents don't have "bubbles," as there...Rents don't have "bubbles," as there is no speculative interest for tenants in rental property. Rents are most closely determined by the income of the community (not, interestingly, by vacancy rate), so as incomes fall, rents will fall too.<br /><br />But because rents are "sticky" on the down, they won't fall as fast or as far as incomes. People don't move to save $5 a month in rent. In fact, rents have to fall 10% before it makes sense for people to move for either better space at the same price or equivalent space for cheaper rent.PeonInChiefhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17611581585285022906noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4622411633995176328.post-11770355885207295662009-10-26T20:27:32.514-07:002009-10-26T20:27:32.514-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.Giacomohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13227656916787125958noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4622411633995176328.post-1336018058430737712009-10-26T17:15:37.651-07:002009-10-26T17:15:37.651-07:00I see the basic point, but if it were generally tr...I see the basic point, but if it were generally true, everyone would wait 3 years to buy outdated and very cheap computers. Why don't most people wait? In the case of computers it's because there's a very high value attached to having the faster stuff now (I'm not talking THE uber-fastest premium stuff) than an older machine. Yes, it's "the same thing" in three years as it is now, but not having it now represents a liability.<br /><br />I think the same can go for houses. When the expected (what I'll call) Giaco-loss on the house appears to be less than the pain of not having the particular house, buying doesn't seem unreasonable. That irrationality may play a part I'll grant, but making all decision based 100% on a currency-only cost-benefit analysis without considering the personal utility of any other factor, may itself represent a particularly amusing mode of irrationality.<br /><br />If you're unlikely to end up having to sell during any negative equity period (which hopefuly you're totally avoiding by an appropriate down payment), and you can happily make the payment, and having the house this year as opposed to in a couple of years from now has value to you...then it's not going to be felt as a loss. Even if Father Giacomo disapproves. ;)<br /><br />So let me suggest a revision to the Law of Giacomo: "it's better to pay less than to pay more--to get the same thing...at the same time. A forward time differential may itself be a 'cost' to properly consider in addition to other factors in making any purchase decision." It's not catchy, but I think it's more accurate.<br /><br />As for me, I'm waiting.Bryanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08596060773988867285noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4622411633995176328.post-50526632722859452582009-10-26T15:15:55.511-07:002009-10-26T15:15:55.511-07:00Semantics (and strict accounting definitions) asid...Semantics (and strict accounting definitions) aside, I don't meet a lot of people who bought in 2005-2006 who do not see their decision as having a "cost," whether or not they've had to sell. Everyone understands it's better to pay less than to pay more --to get the same thing.Giacomohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13227656916787125958noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4622411633995176328.post-35749662978467695812009-10-26T13:54:17.805-07:002009-10-26T13:54:17.805-07:00At the a thrift store today at lunch I overheard a...At the a thrift store today at lunch I overheard a real estate agent discussing a deal where the $8k credit was a deal breaker. A couple of things:<br /><br />1) During the height of the bubble years I never once heard real estate agents discussing deals at the thrift store. Interesting change, a sign of tough times or a return to 'normal'?<br /><br />2) $8k is great from a buyer's perspective, especially ignoring the macro affects. But if $8k is going to break your deal in CA you should be re-evaluating your situation, especially with an FHA loan (close to negative equity).<br /><br />Signs of the times.<br /><br />PS I have gone to thrift stores since a child, love the treasure hunt.husmanenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12133974934289103581noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4622411633995176328.post-73538257039066657172009-10-26T12:19:31.840-07:002009-10-26T12:19:31.840-07:00DJ - Nice to hear from you. Glad to see you haven&...DJ - Nice to hear from you. Glad to see you haven't forsaken us.<br /><br />Giacomo -<br /><br />While I acknowldedged we were likely to see further price drops, I also noted that "cost" as you call it, was not likely to be an issue since we planned to say put for a long time. <br /><br />Just because my 401k was off 50% or so in March does not mean I lost money. It is the price I sell at that matters. <br /><br />I suppose one way to interpret cost, would be to see what we could have purchased for the same amout of $$ a year later? But this assumes we want/need something nicer/bigger. In the time since we purchased, I have seen very few homes on the MLS that meet so many of our criteria. This was the heart of the issue....not much out there meeting all our wish list.Buying Timehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04651516505789196067noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4622411633995176328.post-27785177194559726432009-10-25T22:14:14.533-07:002009-10-25T22:14:14.533-07:00DJ. We could start a Darwin award for home purchas...DJ. We could start a Darwin award for home purchases and see what happens. But you never know, there are a lot of selfish genes out there.husmanenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12133974934289103581noreply@blogger.com