Today's WSJ Developments blog suggests Sacramento (where we moved to), and Washington D.C. (where we moved from), will be among the first housing markets in the U.S. to recover.
They use the term rebound in the post, which I think may be a bit strong for what is in store for us. But their observation regarding inventory is still valid. Based on Max's most recent inventory stats over at SacRealStats there is no spring in inventory numbers this year.
Oddly enough, the analyst mentioned employment as a potential spoiler, but not foreclosure activity (which the blog just noted in an earlier post, is set to soar in California).
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5 comments:
The WSJ post is another worthless, incomplete, high level assessment of the market from a self interested industry shill (John Burns, President of Real Estate Consulting, Inc.) who happened to miss the bubble along with the rest of his colleagues. But seeing as how David Lereah was the Journal's go to guy for years, I'm glad they're still able to find reputable "analysts" to fill his shoes.
What does "Recover" mean? If they mean we will be the first to spat on the bottom then I can agree, but I think they mean recover to those fantasy valuations of 2005 which will never happen, ever (adjusted for inflation).
I don't see what can save our area. Job losses are mounting, CA as a whole does little to entice businessess to come here and Sac in particular is very dependant on gov jobs and those will be contracting for a while.
And the banks have too much inventory as it is and foreclosures are still increasing each month with 2009 set to be a record shattering year.
When the Job loss numbers start to trend back to 0 I will start looking for a house more seriously, but 600k+, hell no. When it gets back to under 100k lossed for month, or better (job gains) that will be the time to look.
Ouch time continues.
I think the term "floor" is much more appropriate..."recover", or "rebound" suggest that prices will be heading up again....whereas "floor", implies that prices have stopped dropping.
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