I must have missed this tactic last week, as I was a bit preoccupied with work...but oh its a good one.
I noticed this week (and it was there last week as well)...that the dismal pending sale numbers are actually worse than I thought. Turns out, almost 20% of those pending sales (4 out of 21) are actually new homes. To make matters more interesting....turns out new homes don't seem to be listed until they are under contract (there are none listed in the MLS....and we know they have spec home inventory)!
Why is this so important? Seems builders are trying to game the numbers by beefing up contract activity, and minimize inventory numbers in the MLS. Is this done on purpose? Who knows....but it sure was an interesting find....it means contract activity is really in the toilet around here.
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"Seems builders are trying to game the numbers by beefing up contract activity, and minimize inventory numbers in the MLS. Is this done on purpose"?
Usually new home builders do not have their homes listed on the MLS.During tough times they start advertiseing there from what I have seen.There are oodles of new homes for sale here in az that are not on the MLS.Here in az builders also pay realtors a good commission for bringing in buyers.I did not notice many builders paying realtors in cali.
So on top of the 50000 existing homes for sale here we have thousands of other homes being offered for sale by new builders and FSBO's.
I think you're looking for a conspiracy that doesn't exist. Public builders wouldn't care what you mine from the MLS data. Really.
Not a conspiracy, just a flaw in the data collection that is allowed to exist.
Please forgive me if I go off topic, but I promised I would report back from the Williams and Williams home auction in Elk Grove, in particular about the house on Canner Ct for sale.
Long story short, me thinks I smelt a shill in the auction public . . .
About 130 people showed up, with perhaps 2/3 being registered to bid. The auctioneers made clear that the lenders who were selling the houses were under no obligation to accept the winning bids, and that they would let the winning bidders know if their bids had been accepted.
The Canner Court house ultimately sold for $363K, and it was 2600 sq ft. What makes me think there was a shill was that the Canner Court house, along with the Coop Drive house, had low minimum bids of $50,000 and $100,000, respectively. When they both came up for bid, a guy in a Florin Technical Education Center shirt immediately bid both houses up to $200K as the first bid out, and then slipped away from the bidding. The Coop Drive house, which was over 3,000 sq ft., sold for $465K after Florin Technical Guy immediately bid it up to $200K out of the gate.
I think there is still some "froth" in the market, to borrow a phrase from the much maligned Alan Greenspan, and some shills in the auctions. Most people came away dismayed. I came just to see how much the homes would actually go for and whether there would be a shill. I'm pretty certain there was.
Correction: Perhaps it's not fair to say that he fell away from the bidding, but that he became progressively less aggressive in his bidding.
But did you get laughter? >; )
For some reason I do not trust the auction system.You have so many crooked people and straw buyers out there it is ridiculous.
It is kind of like you think you are getting a deal at an outlet mall.I have not found any good deals out the folsom outlet center.
They get you all hyped up thinking you are going to score a deal but you walk away with you tail tucked between your legs.
gwynster said: "But did you get laughter? >; )"
There's an idea! Get a group of people to go to some of these auctions and spread out through the crowd, then when the bidding gets stupid or starts looking rigged, start laughing loudly at the bidders/shills.
Fight the shills with some shrill laughter...
Just a thought.
Shills, secret reserves, non-binding winning bids? When is an auction not an auction?
Was there free food, at least?
I was at the big auction in July. easily 400 ppl in the room. When bidding got stupid, the audience laughed. I didn't even have to start it >; )
Nope, there wasn't even any laughter at all, best I recall. More of a look of shock and dismay, like, "Who is THAT guy?". I think it's early enough in this whole unraveling process that people actually thought they were going to get a deal. They're not jaded enough yet. But I would imagine this isn't the last of the auctions in Elk Grove, so if I attend any others, I'll report back, perhaps with a "jadedness" rating.
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