Not sure how much I buy the "land scarcity" leads to appreciation argument, as nice suburbs tend to hold up better in many metro areas, and blighted inner cities neighborhoods tend to stay that way.
I think the land scarcity is one small piece of the puzzle. Home values are highly dependent on many factors. Hence East Sac does better than West Sac, even though they are somewhat equidistant to downtown. There is a lot more in play than just the land.
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I think what we'll see next is increased crime on the perimeters of places Curtis Park, Land Park, Midtown, etc. The edges of this neighborhoods will rapidly become less desireable as criminal activity pushes in and boundaries of the good areas contract. This is what happened during the last downturn.
And is it just me, or is violent crime increasing again? It seems like all I hear about lately is people shooting people all over the place.
There actually was a small gentrification movement going down in Oak Park, largely because many of the houses there are the same Victorians, Craftsman bungalow, etc. that East Sac and Midtown are famous for, only they obviously were a lot more affordable in the bubble. Oak Park did get a little polish in the bubble, but it will tarnish rapidly again now.
I was sitting in off MLK/Broadway doing some paperwork in my car about 2 years ago when a Yuppie-looking guy walked up to the car and asked me for some ID, wanted to know what I was doing, etc. (This is kind of common since 911.) When I showed him my name tag, he said he wasn't sure if I was a Realtor (tm) or a hooker, since both tended to hang out in the area.
OMg, did you punch him?
Nah. He gave me his neighborhood association card and a little spiel about how they were trying to clean up the area. I remember thinking it was a lofty goal, but probably doomed.
At my age, being mistaken for a hooker is almost a compliment -- or did you mean Realtor(tm)?
LOLOLOL both! You can't be female and alone without being one or the other? I'll spare you my feminist manifesto until we can all get together and dish over drinks >; )
They have been trying to clean up Oak park since I moved here in 93. It's been really sloooooow going which is too bad because I love the old craftsmans.
Now I love urban renewal projects. It made sense to buy there when homes were going for 50 to 80k and then work on cleaning them up. However, buying now at the premium price for the "pleasure" of restoring these old homes and then hoping the gentrification efforts produce results is a little like putting the cart before the house. It was all speculation on a massive scale by a lot of people hoping for fast cash while the real activists did all the work.
If they did seed money grants for people who were required to live there, they would have had better results. Instead you had a lot of pspeculators who bought, rented the homes out as Sect 8, and let them fall into further into decay.
/rant off
"At my age, being mistaken for a hooker is almost a compliment"
I was laughing so hard, my daughter asked me what was wrong!
These days I thank people profusely when they card me (it doesn't happen much anymore)....although I think some might do it intentionally to get a bigger tip.
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