Wednesday, November 19, 2008

November Market Stress Update for 95762, 95630, 95602, 95603

You know you are a nerd, when you are pissed off about work, so you play with housing data to help get you mind off things.

Anyways, here is the latest market stress update for El Dorado Hills, Folsom, and now Auburn. I wanted to include the monthly sales too, but it was just too much data on one slide, so I have attached the sales data separately (that MCB had sent me earlier...thanks again!). Do take the time to compare the monthly sales numbers to the NOD & REO levels.....if I had more time I would have done some combinations, but unfortunately I am really short on time these days.

As you can see, NODs have been stopped in their tracks by the recent CA legislation. Few new NODs are being filed, while old ones are getting resolved or reverting to REO status (notice the steady rise in REOs).

Just noticed I didn't label the data legend very well. It is the sales price bin in thousands of dollars. The data was rounded for ease of aggregating, so the "300" bin, is actually comprised of homes that sold from $250,000 to $350,000.








5 comments:

sacramentia said...

I just got outbid by 45% on an REO property. Crazy. I guess I finally ran into one of those 'investors' SMF is always ranting about. The place went for 145% of asking, cash.

Husmanen said...

Wow, would you mind sharing what area?

I continue to keep track in Folsom and EDH and see some REOs go for more than asking but 145% is a whopping number, even if the bank put a very low market price.

Wonder if this 'investor' would qualify for the term 'speculator'?

Deflationary Jane said...

Let the greater fool have it. These people are banking on a return to 05 pricing - good freaking luck.

The real deals haven't been seen yet as the unemployment hasn't really hit yet. Those Sept/Oct/Nov job losses need a good 6 to 9 months to show up in pricing.

But then we'll have a lot more job losses come Jan/Feb so you'll need another 9 months on top of that.

Maybe that 2011 bottom wasn't as far fetched as we thought. So hold onto your money and be ready.

Another market indictor is the massive amount of rental properties out there. I've never seen so many for rent or lease signs in Davis before and that's including during the summer change over. Seeing this many in late fall is almost unheard of. Do you really want to be holding more rentals in the face of that wave of vacancies?

RV6Flyer said...

"I've never seen so many for rent or lease signs in Davis before"

Are people leaving Davis? I don't see enrollment down at UCD. You can't argue the overbuilding/supply issue in Davis.

Deflationary Jane said...

When I moved back, I was able to lease the same floorplan as my previous rental, in far better shape (like having CHA, a dishwasher etc) right down the street from my old place for 100.00 less a month. The students that signed the lease in June gave 30 days in Sept. and were out on Oct 1.

On my street alone, not counting the apt complexes across the street, there are 7 for rent signs on SFRs. We used to see 4 during the prime July/Aug season.

Enrollment will be down next year. I was gone during the early fall here so not sure what is driving it but I know that the state is tightening money mid year here and for the next fiscal year.

They are reducing enrollment at the CSU and community colleges:
http://www.sacbee.com/101/story/1406360.html

"The California State University system plans to eliminate 10,000 admission spots for the 2009-10 school year as a result of the state's worsening budget crisis.

Last week, the Community College League estimated that proposed budget cuts to California's community college system would result in a loss of 262,000 students."

I don't have anything solid for UCs but it looks bad.