November Market Stress Update for 95762, 95630, 95602, 95603

You know you are a nerd, when you are pissed off about work, so you play with housing data to help get you mind off things.

Anyways, here is the latest market stress update for El Dorado Hills, Folsom, and now Auburn. I wanted to include the monthly sales too, but it was just too much data on one slide, so I have attached the sales data separately (that MCB had sent me earlier...thanks again!). Do take the time to compare the monthly sales numbers to the NOD & REO levels.....if I had more time I would have done some combinations, but unfortunately I am really short on time these days.

As you can see, NODs have been stopped in their tracks by the recent CA legislation. Few new NODs are being filed, while old ones are getting resolved or reverting to REO status (notice the steady rise in REOs).

Just noticed I didn't label the data legend very well. It is the sales price bin in thousands of dollars. The data was rounded for ease of aggregating, so the "300" bin, is actually comprised of homes that sold from $250,000 to $350,000.

Auburn Update

MCB44 was kind enough to send some updated statistics for Auburn. They continue to show the trends we were seeing back in April; more sales at the lower end of the market. This mimics what we are seeing in many areas of Sacramento, and largely accounts for the huge drop in the median price being reported by DataQuick (since the bulk of the home that are actually selling are at the lower end of the spectrum).

This skewed distribution can be seen by contrasting the recent OFHEO figures with DQ median (which is showing between 20%-35% drop depending on the county). The OFHEO data only shows a 17.68% drop in prices over the last year, and are still showing a 22% increase over the last 5 years.

From the Bee's Homefront Blog, OFHEO "is the national gold standard for measuring home prices. It reflects the same homes sold over time rather than the median, which lately tends to reflect the lowest end of the market activity with foreclosure properties."

I don't know too many who's wages have increased 22% over the last 5 years (the equivalent of getting a 5% raise each year)*.....its no wonder the buyer's still can't keep up.

* Of course I work at a not-for-profit, so those in the private sector may have done better in the boom years.

Trends in Auburn

MCB44 was kind enough to send an update on the Auburn area (which he tracks on a weekly basis). He put together a summary comparing sales in Q1 of 2007 to Q1 of 2008. The trend of more sales at lower price points is also similar to what we have been seeing in Folsom and El Dorado Hills.

Note that the high end of the graph is on the left, with the low end on the right.

Highlights: Median price decreased from 439,750 to 339,700. Sales volume decreased from 87 to 69.



I also totally agree with his conclusion regarding the data.....that we "will continue to see further downward pressure on prices and we will likely see more of the listings migrating down into the price bands where sales are occurring."