Monday, November 30, 2009

November Market Stress Update for 95762 & 95630

It's probably too early to tell, but the wave of NODs appears to be cresting a bit. At this point, I expect REOs to start picking up steam, now that many of the NODs have run their 90 day course. I also expect NOD activity to be elevated for some time as the 3 & 5 yr (Option) ARM loans issued in 2005 - 2007 begin to readjust. Low interest rates won't protect these folks forever. Hopefully they are taking advantage of low interest rates and are refinancing into a fixed rate (if they are able).

I would really love to see an updated chart of when the different loans begin to adjust (taking into account refinancing etc).....like the chart here which seems super scary till you look here and see the perspective of what we have already been through (we are around month 35 if I read the chart correctly).....this one is the latest I have found and doesn't seem all that different from the original one (all links courtesy of Lander's Blog).

7 comments:

lamaiahoffmann said...

"...like the chart here which seems super scary till you look here..."
The thing that strikes me comparing the first and second charts is that although the 2nd one shows that the total amount is smaller going forward than looking backward, the products that are forecast to cause the problems are totally different and will effect different market segments. In earlier times, it was almost all subprime, so that segment of the market got smashed. Going forward the source of the problems is much more varied, but I believe the majority were used to buy more expensive homes, so the more expensive end of the market will be more effected.
I'll be interested to see if we also now see disproportionate effect on expensive coastal areas... as well as the house we just bought. See just how far it takes us down. :)

sacramentia said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
sacramentia said...

Spent some time with some friends over the weekend who had the pick-a-payment loans. Both had massive interest rate reductions and principal reductions to appraised value to help them not walk. One even had his vacation home written down. This multiplied by 1000's of homeowners and there will be no second wave of defaults. I know it isn't about me, but I'm a sucker for playing by the rules.

sacramentia said...

Renters insurance? Any advice?

I was going to buy a second home and it just didn't make sense compared to renting, so I leased one for now. Should I get renters insurance?

Buying Time said...

Tia -

Renters insurance tends to cover your belongings (robbery, break in etc). But if I were you, I would be more concerned with liabiity coverage(someone gets hurt and tries to sue).

We have always gone with USAA...as they offer fairly good insurance if you qualify.

Yes, I know what you mean about feeling like a sucker. It's incredibly frustrating.

husmanen said...

Sacramentia, wow, principle reductions. I have about five friends requesting reductions and so far no one has succeeded, one actually was sold at auction.

But this could be a sign of the times, the longer you wait the more willing the banks may become.

My LL did a loan mod in November, when enough time has passed I will check to see what the details were on the mod.

PeonInChief said...

So, husmanen, you're housed for now! Good!