Monday, February 22, 2010

One Year Market Assessment

We bought a new home a year ago last week. As one who follows market trends, I was well aware of the continued downside potential in the Sacramento housing market, so our decision still causes me a bit of anxiety.

However according to the latest DQ stats, so far the damage isn't that bad. As of January 2010, the number of homes sold in El Dorado Hills is up (29%), median price is only down 3.4% and price per sqft is only down 1.3%. Stats for Folsom are fairly similar. Of course three numbers can masks a lot of undercurrents. But other stats are looking favorable as well......the number of NODs in the two zips continues to fall and foreclosures have held fairly steady despite the earlier surge in NODs.

At the same time, my own neighborhood, a new development, is slowly starting to crack. There are many short sales currently on the market and at least two foreclosures now. However Zillow only shows a drop in value of 3.4% (perhaps tied to the median price decline as opposed to comps?).

On a personal note, so far we have been absolutely delighted with our decision. We love the neighbors, we love the neighborhood, we love the house, and we especially love the drive into and out of our neighborhood. On a clear day you can see the snow capped Sierras on the way in, or the entire Sacramento Valley on the way out.

Our only disappointment has been that our builder, Pulte, did a super crappy job landscaping our front yard, and laying the drainage. I will report more on that in a later post.


husmanen said...

I was looking at some numbers from TrendGraphix and looks like the number of homes for sale in EDH is down quite a bit from a year ago, 329 in Jan 2009 and 208 in Jan 2010. The pending sales 42 vs 80 seem to be going up but the number of sold homes 35 in Jan 2009 and 44 in Jan 2010 hasn’t changed much.

The average price per sq. ft in EDH was $165 in Jan 2010 and is now $160, which it has been hovering around for a while.

The DQ numbers I see for Folsom are a -13.1% change YoY with a median of $325k and a median sq ft in Jan 2010 of $186.

EHD has a median of $420k with a -3.4% like you mentioned, and a median price per sq ft of $151.

I think I predicted at least a 10% drop, that hasn’t happened in EDH in general, but I have seen many a house drop over 25% in a years time.

On a side note, your area is wonderful and we have visited the models when they were open, driven by a few times but just have a very hard time with the Mello-Roos. There is even one of the short-sales on the market now that we were just considering (the one on court with a pool), but couldn’t pull myself to do it. I understand why you love the area, its natural beauty will create wonderful family memories.

BTW, are there ever CHP in the ride in or out? That 25 MPH speed limit is very difficult to adhere to : - )

Buying Time said...

Thanks for the report on TrendGraphix....I always forget to look there. But the inventory numbers are encouraging indeed (in terms of market stabilization).

Honestly I am a bit surprised too, I had expected between 8-10% drop this year....and for a while there I was thinking it might even be more.

As far as CHP, sometimes they hang out in the parking lot at the firestation and watch for people speeding on Bass Lake road.

PeonInChief said...

Oh, no. Does the water puddle up in the front yard and create a pond, or did they not slope the yard away from the house?