Friday, March 19, 2010

Housing Market Milestone in EDH

The new DQ stats are out for the Sacramento area zip codes. February 2010 marks a milestone for EDH. This is the first positive year-over-year median price since November 2006.

I also took a look at the MLS the other day. I was stunned by how many high end homes were PS. By my rough count, less than 6 months inventory at the high end, which is simply shocking, as I remember it being over 30 months a while back. Again, this assumes that everything PS closes in a month, which we know it doesn't.....but still, a huge sea change from earlier, especially given all the gloom and doom hype about the high end.

Lot o' Caveats:
It's a small increase for EDH, and I don't have the #s for Feb 2009 (for the 38 data points, ironically that's the one I am missing), and the year-over-year price per square foot is still slightly negative.

One additional caveat, this happened to Folsom a couple months back, but now they are back to double digit declines. I should also note, that recent statistics show that Folsom has caught up to EDH in terms of correction. Both have corrected between 38-40% off the peak price, and are only 5% above late 2002 levels (which is the earliest my data goes back).

All stats are based off DQ resale numbers.

Update: Some corroboration from today's WSJ.

3 comments:

husmanen said...

Interesting, very interesting.

So there were 40 sales in Feb, an increase of 33% and the median price when up 0.8%. As you mentioned, the median price per sqft went down -1.1% to $158.51.

I can see the median going up as more houses that were very high are now lower, and selling.

Here is a good example:

4832 Danbury Cir, EDH
Current asking price: $449k
Last Sold: $700k in 2007

This is a great house, great neighborhood and great schools. We were close to bidding on it. I am sure it will sell as it is close to rental parity.

There are also a couple of fixers on Powers in EDH that might sell and push the median down.

Seems like there are forces on all sides pushing and pulling at the market right now.

Buying Time said...

"Seems like there are forces on all sides pushing and pulling at the market right now."

Yes, I would say we are out of free fall...but we will see limited appreciation for some time while the push and pull forces balance eachother out. I predict a more or less flat market for the next 2-3 years while the rest of the distressed inventory is worked off.

I certainly admire your fortitude for holding out this long Husmanen.

sacramentia said...

That's good news. It sure doesn't feel like that in my neighborhood where every couple weeks a bank owned lowers the bar even more.