Friday, June 18, 2010

Finally Movin on Up?

A while back, I reported that the high end was "hopeless," based on some statistics, and a lot of anecdotal stories.

Well times have changed (it is late spring after all). Several of those that had decided to hold off, are now back in active offer mode. All are move-up buyers. Our dear friends, are even a bit frustrated.

DQ numbers are out for the month of May. Sales and price are both up (year-over-year) for Folsom. Sales are up for El Dorado Hills, but median price is down 5.4% annually. However the median is still above the low hit in Oct 2009.


husmanen said...

Could the increase in sales in Folsom be due to the stimulus ending and a lower price range?

If the stimulus hits lower price ranges more then we would expect EDH to have a lessened effect, which we see by the -5.4% decrease.

The high in Folsom was $610k and in EDH $1.3M.

Also the $/sqft in Folsom was $172, a -4.5% drop and in EDH $153, a -4.8% drop.

From Trendgraphix the avg $/sqft in EDH has decreased to $162 in May from $171 and $168 for March and April respectively. In Folsom the avg $/sqft decreased to $173 in May from $179 in April ($171 in March).

So far in EDH in June from Melissa Data there have been 52 sales, which exceed their total fo 51 for May, but the average price has decreased from $503k in May to $470k in June so far. In Folsom the June average so far is $336k with 68 sales, compared to $340k and 73 sales for all of May.

Anecdotally, I have seen a wave of houses in my micro areas come on the market at near rental parity prices. Many are SS and a few bank owned, not to many organics. The houses that are currently on the market are usually too high and have been sitting for quite some time.

Buying Time said...

Hus -

My 2 cents. Monthly fluctuations are normal....but year over year is the big picture, and a much higher bar. If prices/sales are around the same place they were last year, then the market is stabilizing. I think + or - 3% for year over year is stabilization compared to where we have been (with both up and down fluctuations).

Year over year Melissa Data for EDH has been -0.6%, 1.1%, and 0.2% for the last three months. Basically no change in average price compared to last year. Folsom saw bigger swings during that time (+6.4% and -5.3%).

husmanen said...

BT. I agree YoY is a much better metric.

If there appears to be some type of stabilization I am having a hard time putting the data in context.

Compared to a year ago, there are many more houses that fit my criteria and price range. It is as if a large chunk just moved down a segment. So for particular houses I see the % still going down, ie same price but better quality house.

What I don't see much of is similar houses selling for the same as last year, there are some exceptions.

Something is amiss.

sacramentia said...

5.4% is still a pretty significant drop in equity. It is more than most people pay each year in interest to the Bank.

sacramentia said...

A friend of mine just rented a house out in EDH and said he received 12 calls - all people that are walking or foreclosed and moving within town.
That means no new demand for housing just shuffling vacancy from one home to the next.

The schools also have declining enrollment for next year.

husmanen said...

An interesting article from San Diego, which has experienced a rise in prices of late.

Rising Inventory Could Stall Home Price Rally

San Diego is lucky enough to be part of the Case-Shiller analysis.

There appears to be a strong correlation between supply and demand, meaning supply going up and prices going down.

Also, there was a 'catch-up' period where both supply and demand (prices) were going up. That appears to be stalling.

Wonder what will bode for our area as supply continues to increase.