To help wade through all the monthly fluctuations, the 6 month moving average is now emphasized. The strong downward pricing trend over the last couple years has given way to a new period of relatively flat prices. I believe this new trend has momentum since sales are also up, or flat.
The forecasted flurry of foreclosures appears to be more of a steady trickle. The number of foreclosures and defaults, while elevated compared to historical standards, are both off their previous peaks for Folsom and El Dorado Hills.
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Thanks for the data. I can see why you opted for an average because of the monthly fluctuations, especially Melissa data e.g. Folsom dropping to $340k from $381k with 73 sales while EDH up to $503k from $478k with 51 sales.
May I ask why you chose a 6 month average? If I remember right the Case-Schiller uses a 3 month, not sure why though.
I did a little test and the 3 month average actually pushes up the averages a percent or two.
I was trying to weed out some of the seasonality. Each year there seems to be a short plateau in spring/summer.
I also wanted to see how strong the trend is. A 6 month average is a higher hurdle for maintaining a trend.
I believe 3 months (quarterly) tends to be the industry standard, but many of those metrics also adjust for seasonality.
In Cameron Park, I have seen what looks like maybe a "floor" developing, over the past six months or so. The lowest priced homes ($80-100/ft) sell within days of going on the market, for list price or higher. Homes above $175/ft, for the most part, languish. (Some are still as expensive as $260/ft, and have been on the market for years.)
IMO, whether that floor "holds" or not depends on the overall economy as much as anything.
Paul. Did you see the house on Oxford, backs up to the airport (has a hanger on the back side), just sold at auction for $330k?
Unique house, a little over $120 sqft and almost 50% off peak price.
Lots of traffic on the front-side but if you loved flying having the hangar would be great fun.
Thanks for posting the charts. Do you have the data for the average price per square foot?
Husmanen: I probably "see" every house, but don't pay attention to a lot of them, especially on Oxford (so busy). But there are some incredibly good "deals" in relative terms. One on the golf course, with a pool, in need of minor work, last December, for $75/foot. Another "very unique" house on Kimberly is PS ... 1600/ft, listed at $325k, built in 1968 and never updated (still has avocado green dishwasher!) ... architect designed 1960's modern with an entire glass wall from one end to the other, to take advantage of the view but needs 41 years of neglect, repaired. You couldn't build that house now with Title 24, etc.
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