Friday, February 15, 2008

Feb Inventory Update

Collected the monthly inventory by zip. Not much to report. A very slight increase for the metro area compared to January. But individual zips were all over the place.

While gathering the data noticed that EDH, even though up this month, has really dropped overall. Some have pointed this out in the comments as a sign of recovery......yet the month's inventory has remained relatively high due to low sales numbers which seems to cancel this effect out. Anyways, I haven't seen the drop reflected it in my personal searches because a much larger portion of the available inventory is now within my price range.

As far as Sacramento Metro asking price distributions.....I changed the graph so it is a bit more intuitive to look at. Now the area under the curve represents the percent of homes available in a given price range. So as the market returns to affordability, we should see the graph bulge out on the left hand side over time. I was rather surprised at how quickly this movement has taken place. In just one month there are very noticeable changes.

4 comments:

Paul said...

I was very surprised to see the apparent severity of the price shift month-over-month. Wow! When you graph it like this, its very easy to see what is going on out there.

That prompted me to take a look at Radarlogic to see if it was consistent. Keeping in mind that Radarlogic lags 60 days, and one week does not make "a trend," Radarlogic has gone vertical (as in down from $185/sq.ft. to $180 in one week), as of the last week reported (using 28 day aggregate for Sacto MSA).

Gwynster said...

Very nicely done BT

mcb44 said...

Agree, very good info. Given the relative lack of new inventory volume it seems likely that the left shift is due primarily to price drops of existing inventory.

This shows an interesting correlation with the information I've been looking at in Auburn, where 28% of the inventory is listed between 400k and 200k, and accounts for 62% of the total pending sales. If we consider that price range the sweet spot, your chart seems to show listings chasing that price range.

sacramentia said...

Nice Graph BT.

If you compare this graph to the income distribution in sacramento: (source:sacbee)
0-25 12.90%
25-35 11.50%
35-50 22.00%
50-75 18.20%
75-100 16.20%
100-150 11.70%
150- 7.50%

The movement of the blue curve is aligning itself nicely with the income distribution curve. The larger multiple of income you throw in more it matches the green (5x vs. 3x). It looks to me like the larger declines will continue to be in the lower end unless the long term rates drop significantly more and allow for a higher multiple of income for those who are not in high enough tax brackets for a significant write off.