Friday, March 7, 2008

All's Fair?

Just noticed that the Q4 update to the National City / Global Insight Housing Valuation Report has been released. According to their study, Sacramento is now considered to be fairly valued! How bout that. We have come down from our peak of 53% overvalued to just 7%.

With the credit markets in such disarray, the economy teetering on the edge, and no end to the onslaught of foreclosures and NODS, Sacramento is likely to overshoot the mark.

6 comments:

Gwynster said...

I think that's because they only had us at a fantasy 30% over instead of the 50% that was real.

Sippn said...

Now if I brought up National's study, you'd all poo poo it.

I think they still showed 7%, but thats within reason.

Like Sac Real Stats, sometimes you have to "create" your bottom through the offer process.

Patient Renter said...

If it's fairly valued now, projecting backwards (using Shiller's data) that would mean it was a downright STEAL for most of the 20th century. Obviously this is nonsense.

And gwyn is right. Funny though, that 30 was considered overly pessimistic at the time.

Mystere said...

Actually, it showed that at the peak the Sacramento market was overvalued by more than 50% -- specifically, 52.4% in Q32005.

Try again.

Mystere said...

Sippin, it shows 7% over as of the end of Q42007, which as shown in its data corresponded to a median price at that time of $302.2K. The median has dropped another 10% or so since year end, so I would think that as of now that 7% (and likely somewhat more) has been erased.

Sippn said...

Yea I think I looked at that. Plus or minus 10% probably no bid deal.

Notice that the really underpriced places happen to be WHERE NOBODY WANTS TO LIVE. Where the price to income ratio is low because income is moving away....