Friday, March 6, 2009

Market Stress Update - Back Where We Started

As of this week, NODs are back to the same peak levels prior to the enactment of legislation in California. The number of foreclosures has dipped slightly, but not in a very meaningful way.

This data still suggests to me that Folsom prices will have more downward pressure compared to El Dorado Hills. Looking at the ratio of REOs on http://www.metrolistmls.com/, compared to total foreclosures (gathered from http://www.foreclosure.com/), only 26% of REOs are listed for Folsom, compared to around 52% for EDH. In other words, there is 74% REO shadow inventory in Folsom, and 48% in El Dorado Hills. Some of this is likely due to processing lags, but 75% seems awfully high to me.

Separately, the ratio of all foreclosures to total MLS listings is very high in Folsom, around 54%, compared to 28% in El Dorado Hills.

1 comment:

Husmanen said...

Thanks for the graph, this data supports a lot of anecdotal observations here in Folsom and EDH.

I even know of one home that went into foreclosure on realty.trac for a few months and then off - haven't seen it again, but I see it on another site, every month as the auction is postponed.

Again, thanks, for keeping the data lantern burning.