Tuesday, March 30, 2010

Housing Market Status in El Dorado Hills

Earlier this month I was really surprised when I took a look at the MLS in my zip code. So I decided to take some time to scrape the MLS for El Dorado Hills to get a better idea of what is happening. The results are presented in the table below.

As you can see, I was not imagining things, PS and PSB together make up over 100 listings. It is also obvious why median is a better statistic, because the average is strongly skewed toward the high end, due to some really pricey homes in this zip code.

Month's inventory, while low by these numbers, is somewhat useless in a distressed market. PS take longer to close when dealing with banks, and all the AS/ASC listings can take months to go PS, even when they have a legitimate offer.



It will be very interesting to see if this pace keeps up.

12 comments:

husmanen said...

Thanks for the info and data, I know this is difficult due to the way the data is available and data inconsistencies.

I did notice a lot of the homes that have in the description “not a short-sale or REO” are either former REOs that have been purchased by a flipper or they are priced way too high. With the latter it is easy not be a SS if put your asking price higher than your loan amount without regard to the market.

There are even listing that don’t explicitly identify the house as short-sales in the listing type but only in the description, e.g. 363 Arches Ave, EDH?

Also, I was wondering how many of the PS are actually former AS, AR, AS, REOs or ‘organic’. I could not see the SSs readily but I did identify the REOs that are PS for houses <$300k. Of the 10 homes that are PS 50% are REOs, one is not even identified as an REO but is (1101 Malcolm Dixon Rd).

Of the 34 current homes <=$300k: 13 are ASC, 3 are AS, 10 PS (5 PS are REOs and 5 are ‘organic’) and 8 ‘Active’. Looking closely at these numbers there are a shocking amount of homes for sale that are ‘non-organic’, over 60%.

The normal homes for sale in this category are few and far between.

husmanen said...

Here is the latest from ATSDR regarding asbestos in EDH.

Evaluation of Community-Wide Asbestos Exposures

http://www.co.el-dorado.ca.us/emd/apcd/PDF/ATSDR_Health_Consultation.pdf

husmanen said...

Sacramentia. Interesting with the house prices. I too have observed a pretty significant change lately.

What hasn't changed is my wife's opposition to building our own home. I will have to let this one go, but will watch the data anyways.

husmanen said...

AB. Did you know this existed?

El Dorado County Secured Property On-Line Tax Bills

http://main.co.el-dorado.ca.us/CGI/WWB012/WWM432/T

You just put in a parcel number and you get a breakdown of the taxes. Not as nice as Sac County's with their map, but it is great info.

I just found it, man it makes my comparison between Folsom and EDH much easier.

husmanen said...

Here is some data for Folsom for the first months of 2010, source:

http://therealfolsom.typepad.com/

Total 160 Homes Sold

* 41 were short sales, ranging in price from $175,000 to $850,000--and with a median sales price of $305,000 and 137 average DOM. These short sales sold for, on average, 95% of list.

* 37 were bank-owned, ranging in price from $104,000 to $535,000. They sold for a median price of $272,000 and and average 42 DOM. And they sold for 99% of list.

* Finally, regular sales--83 in all. Those homes had a median sales price of $370,000, were on the market an average of 52 days, and sold for 97% of list.


That's about a 50/50 split with distressed homes and 'regular'.

Buying Time said...

Hus -

Great job holding down the fort while we were on break! Looking forward to checking out the links.

I only knew of a different, more generic link for taxes...

Mark said...

Slightly off-topic my apologies in advance. I'm a buyer looking at El Dorado Hills, and was curious if you knew the average loss a bank is taking on short sales. To be clear the number I am looking for is (loan amount outstanding 1st+2nd mortgages) less the offer approved by short seller & bank as a % loss to the bank.

I'm asking because I've got an offer on a short sale, approved by seller, and most recently countered by the bank, to where they are taking a 13% loss on what was owed. I realize that this is a pretty ballpark way of looking at this just curious if anyone had a suggestion on backing up our number beyond comps

husmanen said...

Mark. Interesting potential metric, could provide insight into the ‘typical’ write-down, but I am not sure how relevant it would be to an individual sale as so many ‘other’ circumstances many influencing the decision, 1st loan, 2nds or 3rds, work load, timing with quarterly/annual reports, timing with government write-down bailouts etc.

One metric that I have found tried and true is rental-parity. Can pay rent based on speculation. If you can gather price information about rentals in the area you can back into a potential bid. Also, you have to assume that a rental must cover the Principle, Interest, Taxes and Insurance after 20% down, then you are on your way.

In EDH house rents typically range between $1,500/month and $3,000/month, with a median probably around $2,200/month (just a guess). That would put you at about $400k.

Here is a 3,400sqft house in Serrano for $2275 (priced a little high)
http://sacramento.craigslist.org/apa/1688848644.html

3,300sqft for $1975 in Green Valley Hills
http://sacramento.craigslist.org/apa/1684082660.html

2,681 sqft in Ridgeview for $2395 with pool nad view (been for rent for a long time)
http://sacramento.craigslist.org/apa/1681145375.html

husmanen said...

Mark. Here is one short-sale I am aware of lately.

3398 JULIE ANN WAY, EDH
Notice of Sale Amt: $1,135,387.49
Sale Amount: $745,000

I believe the Notice of Sale Amount was only for the 1st, there may have been a 2nd of another $200k. Your agent can check this for you.

Even without a 2nd that is a chunk of change they took off the loan for a short-sale.

Jo said...

I stumbled upon this blog, excuse me if I am off topic. Has anyone come across assessments that are way above the purchase price? I always thought the 2 are related. Thanks

Buying Time said...

Welcome Jo -

Property taxes in California are primarily governed by Proposition 13 (search Wikipedia) and subsequent amendments.

In theory, when you buy a home, that resets the new tax base. With the bubble, taxes were pegged to inflated home prices, so if a home was sold in 2006 for 600k, but is now valued at 400k, it should be reassessed if purchased at 400k. Call your county's assessor if you have specific questions. We called ours, and the guy my husband talked to was very helpful.

Hope this helps.

P.S. Folks only monitor comments to the most recent blog post, so I would suggest posting questions there.

Jo said...

Thank you for your response. My situation is that the county assessor is placing a value of 30% more than our purchase price. We were in a competitive bidding situation so I know for sure we bought at market price. The agreed contract price was 20k over listing price but needed to be adjusted downwards because of vandalism before closing but still way above asking price. This high assessment seems really unfair and unpleasant surprise to me and not something we planned on esp challenging now that I am not working :)-