Friday, October 19, 2007

Sacramento September Month's Inventory by Zip

Slowly all the zips succumb to the market correction. Only a limited number of holdouts below the 6 month mark now (this mark generally signifies a balance between buyer and seller).

As the for sale inventory persists and actual sales plummet (even beyond the normal seasonal drop)....the month's inventory take on some ridiculously high values in some zips. As a whole, the region is at 12.2 months inventory.

This "buying power" is a very welcome change compared to when hubby and I went shopping for our first house back in the early spring of 2001.

Separately, I'm a bit frustrated with the media as there seems to be a lack of sympathy (and even some hostility) towards prudent buyers who are priced out of the market. Seems all the sympathy is directed towards sellers (or in most cases listers). The coverage is very one sided.

As usual, the sales stats are from DataQuick posted by the SacBee each month. The inventory is gathered by zip code from ZipRealty each month for single family homes.


Giacomo said...

Thanks for your work, BT.

I know what you mean about the media slant. I think that they see a bigger audience airing "sob stories" which elicits sympathy not only from the people with real financial troubles, but also from ordinary (solvent) homeowners who are disappointed to see their net worth fading. Quite a few people counted their home's value as their main asset for retirement, so they are living their own quiet tragedies.

Those of us who are waiting for the correction to fulfill itself are in the minority. Don't you feel it at every social gathering? We're like the town undertakers.

Gwynster said...

Of the 19 sales in 95691, at least 4 were TD back to the banks and I'm checking a few others. I've totally lost faith in the SacBee numbers.

buying time said...

Since I already pulled the data for the first six months of the year, I should probably go back and see how it lines up with the monthly DQ reports.

I had only looked at what's in the sales database the Sac Bee provides, which includes new, resales, as well as bank sales.

Thanks for the idea G.

Don't know about you...but I am absolutely giddy about the latest numbers. Great way to start the weekend. TGIF.

buying time said...

Giacomo -

I have learned to be very very careful feeling someone out, before I really get into the housing discussion. In some instances I find myself consoling people who bought in 2005 using the same nonsense the realtors spout. I mean what else do you say to someone in that situation that you care about....oh gee sorry, you really are screwed is not appropriate.

smf said...

Interesting question:

Wouldn't some higher income areas show less months of inventory?

The reason?

They have more financial werewithal to 'assume' that they can hold out a little longer till the market comes back?


Giacomo said...

BTW, It's fun to see my Cool neighborhood right near the top (even if our numbers are too small to be significant). I notice that of 25 closed sales in the last 6 months, only 4 were over 500K, our median asking price. I'm guessing Bay Area folk have put owning a horse properties on the back burner, and the country-home-as-flip movement is coming to a painful close.

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G Spot1 said...

13.4 months of inventoty in Granite Bay. F--- yeah!

I think this number will be even higher next month...

Cmyst said...

giacomo -

The Sig and I went to a social gathering in Cool last week and the guy hosting it had moved there from the Bay Area. I was conjecturing to the Sig as we were driving that he probably sold a home there and bought in Cool thinking he was getting a real bargain. Sure enough, that's what he did. The house was 1500 sq/f and not anything special; probably 30 or 40 years old. He did have some land, and a couple outbuildings, but I'm not sure I'd want to do all the work required to maintain property in the foothills in fire season. He paid 410K for the property just a few months ago, I think.
It seemed like about 2/3 of the properties along Salmon Falls Rd. and again across 49 to this guy's place were for sale.

Giacomo said...


Interesting. I can guess which property you mean.. it seemed to go pending virtually simultaneously to appearing on the MLS; I always figured it for an inside sale (Realtor, family member?).

It does seem like a pretty good deal (1,700 sq ft, 5 acres?), except that zillow says the main house is manufactured building, which is a big hit on the value. Some of the "horse properties" up here do a pretty good of putting a double-wide on a foundation and dressing it up with side-gable extensions and bump-outs. Could that be the case?

We have some L.A.-transplant friends up here that bought 20 acres (mostly sloped and wooded) with a workshop+ tiny apartment for around 500K. They've had to buy a fairly serious front-loader to clear brush, to avoid the expense of hiring expensive crews.

It probably goes without saying the old-timer ranchers think it's pretty funny how much city folks have been paying for uncleared hillside lots.

Salmon Falls Rd. is mostly in Pilot Hill, an area in which very few properties seem to change hands annually. I track homes there also; I believe about 25% of the sellers there now are into-the-red flippers.

Gwynster said...

There was a woman in from Shallow Alto who bought an investment property for 299k (3/1 haflplex) in Woodland in 04.

We spoke on the phone. She actually said she bought it because it seemed like such a deal compared to the BA. She had been trying to flip after renting it for 2 yrs. When the market seized, she tried to get me rent it for a very BA price- I politely declined.

The house stayed on the market for quite a while and she finally sold this last summer for 34k less. Add to the pain was the 15.9k RE fees, about 5k to get the place ready to sell after the tenants left, holding costs (299k mort x 11 mo vacant) and maintenance.

That's a .dot sized loss >; )

smf said...

"It seemed like about 2/3 of the properties along Salmon Falls Rd. and again across 49 to this guy's place were for sale."

It also applies to the other side. I mentioned in another place that I travelled thru Shingle Springs Road, and also noticed the large quantities of 'for sale' signs. I estimated 50% of the properties for sale.

Who was dumb enough to speculate on properties up there?

Giacomo said...

Just noticed this one in Pilot Hill: a property we had looked at last spring, a flip done up Craftsman-style by two Bay Area gentlemen, has been marked down a bit. After hanging tough at 639K all year, they are now 519K!

120K in one go. That's gotta be some version of panic.

MLS ID# 70072645 (1,850 sq ft, 5 acres.)

And yes,even up here there were flippers.

Gwynster said...

"Who was dumb enough to speculate on properties up there?"

Not speculators per se but my LL bought up there to retire. They still live in and retain multiple rentals properties in Davis.

smf said...

You should really take a trip out there, Gwyn. It is a nice ride overall.

But like some said, we are not exaggerating by saying that about 50% of the houses in these areas are now for sale.

I have NEVER, not even in pictures, seen such a large number of for sale signs. You could literally see more signs than houses.

Giacomo said...

Hang on, let's not get carried away.
50% for sale? That's not credible.

In rural areas, there will be a lot of signs along the main road; most of them are pointing down side roads.

smf said...

"Hang on, let's not get carried away. 50% for sale? That's not credible."

I was on this road for about 10 minutes. There were many entrances that had 3 'for sale' signs, and another one on the other side.

That is why I suggest some of you take a trip up there, it truly is unreal.