Thursday, October 4, 2007

September 2007 MelissaData for Folsom and El Dorado Hills

For the life of me I can't figure out what the heck is going on with the EDH data. Their averages are all over the place, but still moving upwards even thought sales have tanked. Only explanation I have is that the mix of homes has changed....with new, more expensive homes, influencing the averages.

On the other hand, Folsom is acting as a perfect poster child of a market correction (i.e. fewer sales brings down prices as sellers have to compete for buyers).




20 comments:

Sippn said...

Your answer is just a google away sometimes. I always hear rumors about EDH fee increases. . .


" In a move that builders predicted would further depress the market for new homes, the El Dorado County Board of Supervisors on Tuesday approved a 14.6 percent increase in traffic impact fees for new construction in the county.

The fee, required under the county's general plan, is designed to cover the cost of traffic improvements needed to serve new development. Beginning Nov. 24, the fees for new single-family homes will range from $13,670 to $42,400, depending on location. "


Its not just the quantity of homes on the market (supply) and the lesser demand, but these increased fees continue to raise the floor, the bottom where new homes are built to meet population growth. It was just raised $30K plus interest, carry and profit.

But thats just my opinion.

smf said...

There was also a huge amount of high-end housing that was built in EDH.

Greenview Drive is a perfect example. My sources tell me that most of the mansions there for sale are spec. houses.

I have started to see prices come down to more normal levels, with listing price cuts up to $500K.

Husman said...

Data wise, when a home goes back to the bank it is considered a sale. This will skew the data considerably if there are a high number of homes that become REOs versus market sales. Just a thought.

Cmyst said...

SMF, I've driven Greenview drive twice in the last month and I was just amazed.
It really drives home the point that this bubble was CRAZY. It seemed to me like only one out of every 4 of those mansions was occupied. And these are not "McMansion" homes, they are bona fide mansions. The kinds of places that only very, very wealthy people would be comfortable in. They're not poseur homes. And I don't know where all these wealthy people are coming from to buy them. A handful of these truly upper class earners, of course. But an entire subdivision of them?? It just boggles the mind.
And what will they do with these spec homes when they don't sell? Because the neighbors up there are not the type that will look kindly on dividing these palatial homes up and renting them out.
If just ONE of those places sells, and I'm sure that they do sell one from time to time, it will skew the data upwards phenomenally. Meanwhile, down here in Governor Village where the homes are aging and the populace is much more middle-class, the homes are running in the mid 300K to mid 400K range. The one down the street has now been on the market since late spring.

smf said...

Cmyst:

Greenview Drive listings don't include the mansion that my father is building there!

And it IS spec.

A friend convinced him of the 'investment'.

His buddy still believes that homes that size will not be affected by the downturn.

No, I don't talk about RE with family, they have all essentially invested in it for large sums.

buying time said...

When I look at the listing data for EDH I am always shocked at the number of homes listed over a million. Its a really high proportion of the overall listings as well. I can't figure out who is purchasing these homes? I really doubt Sacramento jobs are producing that kind of income....350k a year and up if you go by the 3x income rule.

Cmyst said...

That's what I'm saying, if every senior executive or CEO or Kings player (but they tend to live in Granite Bay, I think) or local celebrity wanted to live in EDH up in the high end of Serrano, there still wouldn't be enough of them to buy those homes.

Sh@t for brains said...

I am going to make an offer on a home tonight in folsom.Listed at 400 and my offer will be 250 and the listing realtor has to service me for 3 weeks.She will do anything for a sale.It is good to be a buyer.

smf said...

Damn right, cmyst. There are not enough rich people in the area to justify the large number of mansions in the market.

Unless...

1. You buy a 2nd home in Greenview for your golfing weekends.

2. A third home in the Arden area for easy and quick access to Pavillion.

3. Another downtown to take advantage of all that downtown has to offer.

4. Another home up in the mountains for your skiing or vacations needs.

5. Another condo for those 'fantasy play' nights with your wife.

6. And a couple of other 'investment' homes to help you pay for your other homes.

Maybe then the inventory problem will disappear.

Sippn said...

BT - bay area equity, retiree's, some intel, etc.

Some people put money down.

smf said...

"BT - bay area equity, retiree's, some intel, etc.

Some people put money down."

Two words:

'Lincoln Crossings'

Bay area people cannot buy expensive homes throughout the US as expected.

Sippn said...

Comparing the tract side of Lincoln to Greenview Drive - sorry I don't get it.

Sippn said...

AB - the market in these areas will start to move more as Kaiser and the new mall get built in Folsom - soon.

ALso, stumbled upon a builders site showing spectacular financing today. Need to get it for myself. 680 score, 10% dn, payment I/O equal to about 3% of loan Thats how semi regulars buy million dollar homes .... $100K down, $2800 month.... better n buying a Hummer. At $500K its better n rent.

smf said...

"Comparing the tract side of Lincoln to Greenview Drive - sorry I don't get it."

They are both full of speculators, and LC stories told of those BA 'investors' who bought houses there. How many 'sale pendings' do you see in Greenview?

"Thats how semi regulars buy million dollar homes .... $100K down, $2800 month...."

That's not buying a home, that is renting it from the bank. The actual payment (PITI) for a million dollar home is about $7500 or more. That is what my in-laws pay for their house.

Sippn said...

SMF - LC was full of never occupied tract homes. Greenview might have a few speculators who bought hoping to make a few $. A little difference. There will be LC homes for years, Greenview homes on the golf course are very limited.

I think its great that your inlaws pay PITI, but like 20% down and full documentation, not everybody does it anymore.

BTW that payment calc I looked at was about .3% of loan.

Interest only payments equivalent to renting the home from the bank? yea, renting the money. I assume you don't lease your car, payoff your credit cards monthly, and if you have a loan on the car, its balance is always less than low blue book?

It used to be prople puchasing million dollar homes(or equal) put down a significantly higher down payment %, it was both required and just the way people thought 20 years ago.

mr big said...

Do any of you geniuses know where they are building the mall in folsom? Is it on the east side of town near the new commercial area with home depot etc. What is the entry point for a house in empire ranch these days? Do I have to give my left nut as a deposit?

smf said...

"Greenview might have a few speculators who bought hoping to make a few $"

At least 15, in just a small part of the metro area. There are plenty of mansions in Sac. to choose from.

"There will be LC homes for years, Greenview homes on the golf course are very limited."

And on last count, only two of those homes are for sale.

"I think its great that your inlaws pay PITI, but like 20% down and full documentation, not everybody does it anymore."

Those who don't pay PITI WILL have to do so at one point of time. And if they can't do it now, what will help them to do it in the future?

"It used to be prople puchasing million dollar homes(or equal) put down a significantly higher down payment %, it was both required and just the way people thought 20 years ago."

If you have the money to purchase a million dollar property, putting a down payment in no biggie, paying full PITI is no biggie. If the buyer cannot meet those conditions, they are way over their heads.

Sippn said...

Your opinion shall be noted.

Should we use the same standards for those who buy Hummers & Bimmers or before they swipe the credit card for the $10k vacation?

Just pass your application by SMF for review!

Yes people should be more responsible with their money, beyond 3 meals and a place to sleep, its all fluff.

smf said...

"Yes people should be more responsible with their money, beyond 3 meals and a place to sleep, its all fluff."

No, you are missing the point.

People were buying stuff that they could not hope to afford under normal circumstances.

We could have gone out and purchased a million dollar home, with payments that were temporarily affordable.

But the banks don't give out free money, and their money was meant to be paid at one point during the life of their loan.

And we (as many others) could NEVER have done that.

Hence the mess we are in right now.

Don't try to blind me with BS.

buying time said...

SMF

I try my best not to get into a debate with Sippn...he's a lot like my little brother...always trying to figure out how to push my buttons.

Of course sometimes I just can't help myself....especially on days when no one else is commenting =)