Thursday, May 8, 2008

The numbers tell the story

From today’s Wall Street Journal: There are 80 million homes in the US. Of those, 55 million homes have mortgages. Of those, 4 million (7.3%) mortgages are currently behind on payments. In 2007, foreclosure proceedings were started on 1.5 million homes.

I don’t know what the cure rate is on delinquent mortgages, but even if the cure rate is as high as 25% (which I doubt with so many homes underwater), that suggests a doubling of the number of foreclosures in 2008 (3 million units). Great for renters and home buyers. Grim for homeowners, banks and taxpayers.

And while this is happening, Wachovia and Washington Mutual are reported to be using the understated Otheo home price decline numbers rather than the more widely accepted Case/Schiller numbers, so expect more significant loan write-downs at Wachovia and WaMu in coming quarters.

Sort of tempts me to buy a truck load of rice and move to a solar powered bunker in Montana.

Paul

4 comments:

Buying Time said...

"Sort of tempts me to buy a truck load of rice and move to a solar powered bunker in Montana"

It does sound like one of the better alternatives lately...

We finally heard back on our REO offer......50k above our offer. We plan to meet them halfway.

Patient Renter said...

Just don't expect to get more than your quote of rice at Costco :)

sacramentia said...

random question: does anyone have a good carpet cleaner in edh?

Mike said...

Off topic but where is May "Good Buys and Offers"?

Maybe no good deals in May?

Sure feels like it. Any good priced homes are getting snapped up before I can even have chance to take a look at them these days. @#$% investors !!!