Sales in both zips seem to be leveling off a bit, which is why the year-over-year numbers look so promising. One of the main reasons I look at the data over a longer time horizon is because y-o-y numbers can be very misleading. Comparing a bad year to another bad year, doesn't give enough context for the data.
Anecdotal note: Was out for my usual walk with the kids yesterday afternoon, and saw a piece of paper taped to the door of a house we always pass. I didn't go up to check, but I have a strong feeling it wasn't a cookie recipe from a neighbor. This home wasn't even in my www.foreclosureradar.com data. With the HOA maintaining the outside of homes in Serrano, there isn't much to outwardly indicate financial stress. So its always a bit of a shock for me, as opposed to a predictable progression.
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I like EDH and Folsom. BTW,if you live in Serrano, you're in EDH.
Regarding average prices, and PPF, the main reason for the premium for Folsom, is it is closer to Sacramento. There is almost a measurable "price per mile" when comparing communities vs distance to downtown (basic land prices). It is more obvious in the bay area as the prices get more affordable as you travel along 80 from SF. Why Dixon is more expensive than Sacramento, etc.
Assuming you can find comparable homes in the 2 places, also consider Mello Roos, HOA dues, (also tax districts hidden in the property tax rate) electricity and water rates.
My past experience is the last 2 alone would pay the difference, but that may have changed.
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