Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Weekly Screen Scrape - Another Milestone

Homes in my weekly screen scrape have broken through another barrier. There are now 2 homes that meet our criteria (in 95630 or 95762) listed below the 300k mark (and 41 homes between 300-400k).

This is encouraging news for us, as we would only consider homes we can afford on one salary at this point.

Since January of this year, price per square foot of homes in my screen scrape has fallen by 11%. However there is a great deal of disparity out there. Price per square foot ranges from $114, to $235. With EDH primarily on the lower end, and Folsom primarily on the higher end (if I had to guess this is due to home size and extra taxes/fees that EDH homes tend to have).


Paul said...

Radarlogic price per square foot has fallen off a cliff this past week, from about $153 to $146, which is a very dramatic move in such a short period of time. Considering that Radarlogic lags 60 days, I expect your screen scrape to show increasing homes in the sub-$300k range in short order. From the time that Cameron Park broke the $300k barrier with the first house, now about 12-14% of the CP inventory is sub-$300k.

Husmanen said...

BTW, did you see Moonstone is back on the market with a new and improved price?

Buying Time said...

Why does that not surprise me. Option One was a nightmare for us to work with and the main reason we didn't bid on Moonstone.

Another home in the sub 300k's a fairly nice one up the street from us! MLS 80105888 I imagine the bank is looking for a bidding war. Even with the HOA & Mello Roos it is way underpriced. I think $350k is comparable to rent.

Husmanen said...

Yes, the bank is probably looking for a bidding war. This tactic is not used that often in this area, what I have observed is go out high and keep it there for a few months then make some pretty big cuts.

It will be interesting the day that the bidding war tactic is used and no one shows up to the game.

Another probably looking for a bidding war but is much close to the rent/own ratios is MSL 80105853.

Patient Renter said...

There's really an HOA there? I didn't realize.

Deflationary Jane said...

Be careful with those rent/own ratios.

I just rented an exact duplicate of our old place in Davis (it's right down the street) for $100 less a month and it's in far, far better condition. There were two other 2br for lease in similar shape for the same rate. Are we getting hit with demand destruction like we've seen with highway miles and gas consumption?

Megan said...

Why did you move back to davis? I thought you hated davis?

PeonInChief said...


Two things are affecting rentals here. The first is that people are downsizing to protect themselves from potential job and/or income loss. The second is that it appears that the housing overhang in duplexes and houses is so large that it's having some impact on rents. (It must be really big, though, because 10% only flattens rents--it doesn't result in declines.)

Also rents are lower at this time of year, since most people don't move.

Deflationary Jane said...


I agree. However in Davis, leases almost always run from Sept to Sept with LLs requiring signed leases for the next Sept as early as May 1. Rents go low in the spring as everyone tries to get out just after graduation and not have to pay through Aug-Sept. So you see lots of subleasing offers appearing in March through May. The locals figure you are a captive audience in July through Oct. and will gouge the incoming students.

Now I don't know if we've hit 10% yet but the locals are so used to the easy money that they may have had their "come to jesus" sooner then expected.

I was dreading having to find a place at this time of the year for the reason above. So seeing these units empty after the crazy Sept move-in rush was a big surprise.

The bigger surprise is seeing duplexes on the market. The asking prices don't even come near covering rents yet but I do get a happy, joy, joy rush watching them compete with price reductions.

And I don't hate Davis, I completely abhor, despise, detest, and loathe Davis. I wasn't sure where I would land - UCB, Stanford, or UCD. Make no mistake, I would much rather still be in St Louis.

PeonInChief said...


I've always liked Davis, although I don't think the shopping is all that great for a university town (maybe I'm too used to Berkeley?). But it would mean that the DH would have to commute on the causeway and that would be cruel.

Deflationary Jane said...

I love Berkeley, Portland, SF... great progressive cities. I've lived in each of them and would go back gladly. Davis is a Monet - far away it looks good but you get close and it's a big old mess >; )

And yes, the shopping is horrible. The locals promote biking and non-chain stores but gouge on the prices of everything which encourages shoppers to leave the city (usually by car) for purchases. This removes revenue from the local community and adds to the carbon footprint.

They have the right idea but for the life of them, they can't execute a frigging simple plan because it might lower their property values. I wrote them off as selfish wannabes long ago.

PeonInChief said...

If you're going to have non-chain stores, they have to be good ones, not just ones that might as well be gift shops in the mall. And Davis doesn't seem to be able to do that--except for that one record/CD store downtown. The rest of it might as well be at Arden Fair.

This is what makes us so, so good at internet shopping.

Buying Time said...

Welcome back DJ!....glad to have you back, even if you aren't happy to be of these days I expect some details.