Friday, January 9, 2009

Belated Year End Stats Review

I was a bit to busy over the new year to put together some summary housing market here they are a little belated (pardon the formatting, but didn't have time for a spreadsheet):

From my personal screen scrape (which includes Folsom & EDH homes) -

Date: 1/3/2008 ---- 1/8/2009
Total Avail. Listings: 96 --- 144
Total Pending: 28 ---- 58
Avg. Price sq. ft.: $199 ---- $171

Not bad for a market everyone thought was immune to the forces of economics =)

Going back even farther, to when I started collecting the generic data (my room/size criteria were slightly different, but max price point was the same):
Date: 3/18/2007
Total Avail. Listings: 42
Total Pending: 22
Avg. Price sq. ft.: $224

As for the Monthly Data Quick SFH resale data:
Market: Folsom ---- El Dorado Hills
Decline in Median Price since peak: 29% ---- 35%
Decline in Price Per Sq Ft since peak: 26% ---- 36%

(Peak for Folsom was Sep 2005, peak for EDH was Sep 2006 for price and Nov 2005 for sqft)

MelissaData average price shows comparable declines from peak for EDH, however it shows a 35% delcine from peak for for Folsom.

Of course a good portion of this drop in median is due to the paucity of sales at the higher end. Once the high end starts to move again (don't count on that anytime soon) I imagine the median will stagnate (due to change in mix of sales). This applies much more to El Dorado Hills than Folsom, as EDH has many many more homes over the 500k mark (currently Folsom has 80 homes over 500k while EDH has 241).


patient renter said...

Once the high end starts to move again (don't count on that anytime soon) I imagine the median will stagnate

What's your favored substitute for the median in that case - avg $/sq. ft?

Buying Time said...

Hard to say, the enormous home tend to have a cheaper price per sq ft, so that is missleading as well.

Each metric tends to have its issues, hence I don't really rely on any one particular stat. Personally, I think my screen scrape provides the best look, because I hold the type of home (size/br/ba) and price cap constant.

mcb44 said...

Here's a stat illustrating the split between sales on the high end and the lower end. Source is Metrolist, Jan 9

For Auburn, Applegate, Meadow Vista and NewCastle

#of listings > 500k - 162
pending sales - 4

# of listings < 500k - 180
pending sales - 33

Sales in the >500k area decreased dramatically from 07 to 08, but this is the most extreme illustration I've seen of just how far out of supply \ demand equilibration that market segment remains.