Wednesday, January 21, 2009

Market Stress Update for Jan 2009

Last December I suggested that the supply of foreclosures would be slowly depleted as a result of the legislated delay in NODs. With no new NODs in the pipeline for a time, the existing foreclosures inventory will dwindle. So far things are moving along according to plan (see smooth lines on chart).

It is yet to be seen if the second half of my theory proves correct. In a couple months, fewer foreclosures will mean less downward pricing pressure. This in turn will giving the market a false sense of bottom come late spring. Unfortunately, it is false, because the NOD activity is rebounding with renewed vigor (see dotted lines on chart). The effects of all the new NOD activity on prices should be seen by late summer/early fall (given the current foreclosure timeline and pace of bank inaction).

2 comments:

Husmanen said...

Thanks for keeping tabs on this, a very important indicator.

Rich Toscano in San Diego has a large spike in the data, although one month does not make a trend.

Here is the link:

http://www.voiceofsandiego.org/articles/2009/01/13/toscano/745dec08foreclosures011309.txt

sacramentia said...

I've been looking at this chart and it sort of correlates to the alt-a and prime reset charts. What it looks like is the NODs lead the resets by 3-6 months. As if the people hold on until 3-6 months before a reset/recast, then throw in the towel and accumulate cash once the outcome is certain.

It just doesn't make sense to me right now. Do you know of good income distribution stats for EDH vs. loan balances? That data would probably clear things up.