Friday, April 3, 2009

Market Stress Update - April Fools?

The timing seems rather appropriate. If you will notice, the blue line with the black circle around it for Folsom REOs...... right around September it shot up, then mid March, it dropped back down. I don't have enough info to say if this is real or not. I would guess it's not, as I haven't been seeing the REOs show up in the MLS. The only semi-plausible answer would be a massive (over 100 homes) sale to an investor.

Just last month, I was expecting Folsom to see some serious downward pricing pressure (mainly based on this data), but it looks like, the shadow inventory is really a shadow and nothing more. With this turn of events, Folsom no longer looks like it will tip into the abyss as many have expected.

In any case, NODs for all three zip codes have now surpassed their previous legislation levels. I even had to adjust the scale to accommodate the number of NODs for Folsom (but El Dorado Hills is not far behind).


Bryan said...

Odd. It seems strange that inflated "bad data" would persist for so long, only to suddenly be corrected down as dramatically as it shot up. I guess we'll see how it shakes out.

Buying Time said...

What is worse, is that I didn't question such a big jump in data. Due to the timing, right before the legislation took effect, I assumed that it was the banks trying to move the NODs to REO status to avoid the legislative requirements. Although I could swear that at one point I cross checked against ForeclosureRadar.

It persisted for almost exactly 6 months. Really is odd.

Husmanen said...

Interesting... very ... interesting.

Thanks for the great data.

Jacob said...

Fanny and Freddy just ended their moritorum on foreclosures, could it be that the banks weren't bothering to file NODs when they couldn't foreclose and are overwhelmed anyway?

Also it seems to me that if you foreclose you have to book that loss right? But if you don't even file a NOD you can continue living in fantasy land for another month.