Wow...had to double check some of these inventory increases to make sure they were for real. (I am starting to wonder if my data was really that accurate. After all, it hasn't even been a full month.) I plan to start tracking this data a bit more methodically in the future, since I really like this metric. Around the 15th of the month gather inventory data from ZipRealty by zip code for the Sacramento area to get a better idea where the market is soft and where it is still holding up.
Really interesting item to note, on average, the areas where months inventory (available/sold) is the lowest, showed the highest inventory jump from April to May. Areas where the inventory increase was lower, already had a higher months inventory.
In case that wasn't very clear, to give an for example, the two zips I track Folsom and El Dorado both showed this trend. Folsom with a low months inventory had a 22% increase, were El Dorado with a relatively high months inventory showed only a 3% increase. Interestingly there were two zips that whose inventory actually decreased from last month, Rio Linda and West Sac.
Really interesting item to note, on average, the areas where months inventory (available/sold) is the lowest, showed the highest inventory jump from April to May. Areas where the inventory increase was lower, already had a higher months inventory.
In case that wasn't very clear, to give an for example, the two zips I track Folsom and El Dorado both showed this trend. Folsom with a low months inventory had a 22% increase, were El Dorado with a relatively high months inventory showed only a 3% increase. Interestingly there were two zips that whose inventory actually decreased from last month, Rio Linda and West Sac.
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A little further up the hill, for the same period, I have:
Cool / 95614: 30.9%
Pilot Hill / 95664: 0%
Placerville / 95667: 15%
In Cool, the median asking price is at about 500K (quite a few McMansions and mini-ranches at the top end), but almost all sales YTD seem to have been in the lower range.
Since you are using derivatives (# months inventory) the calculation can respond wildly to small changes in either the numerator or denominator (didn't think I ever use those words) .... if sales dropped temporarily during April, the # months takes off quickly... or did a bunch of homes come on the market?
Giacomo - Thanks for the additional data!
Sippn -
The month's inventory was just a point of interest.....to perhaps indicate that inventory may be even-ing (sp?) out across the market. The data actually posted compares the increase in total inventory from April to May. I agree that months inventory is likely to be rather volatile.
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