Here is a link to the round table story in the Sacramento Bee.
I sound "kind of" very inarticulate, as if I can't complete a sentence properly. I will chock it up to all the drugs I was taking at the time for my cold (knowing full well that I totally overuse that phrase). This is why I feel for all the politicians and celebrities whose every word is subject to public scrutiny. It takes a lot of practice to be articulate all of the time. Luckily for me, I can revise and spell check.
For those who might be finding this blog for the first time....here is a link to my slightly more articulate comments, as well as the comments, predictions and insights of others who watch the market with me.
I think the comments over at the Sac Bee have already started shredding everyone involved (some deservedly so.....but I will refrain from commenting more than that).
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12 comments:
Don't be so hard on yourself. It was a good article and you made some good points. 80% of the comments on SacBee are just angry and dumb.
Thanks Sactia. In several instances the point I was trying to get across just didn't seem to come out of my mouth the way I wanted it to. Oh well.
I am still flattered and pleased that the Bee asked me to participate. Its nice to see the bubble blogging community getting some recognition. At the beginning of the session, Wasserman made the comment that there were a couple folks/organzations that were disapointed they didn't get asked to participate.
BT,
I read the article early this morning and aside from being angry about Ramos's comments, I thought it was much too short of an article for anyone to get their points across.
I'd forgotten that you were ill, but I didn't think badly of the points you tried to make, I just assumed space limitations chopped up everyone's thoughts. The whole article seemed unfocused, it makes me wonder how much was chopped from it at the editor's desk.
On a happier note, today was the shortest day of the year and we can look forward to more daylight each day for the next six months!
BT--
Before you start worrying about what commentors say about you, read a representative sample on other stories. I mostly don't bother to comment at all, as it's not worth the grief.
I agree that the article feels short and abridged, but then again since I have OCD with regards to the housing market I never get enough information.
It appears most of the people commenting didn't fully read the article or got stuck on the opinion of one participant and this colored their view of all participants.
The data speaks for itself, others may not like it but it is what it is.
Keep up the good work.
McGuire: Not waiting for bottom is a good thing. Once you know you're at the bottom you're already coming out.
Out of the entire article, this is the one myth I'd like to have seen shot down, hard. Housing bottoms are wide.
Re: the Sacbee comments, they didn't seem too bad compared to other articles. Keep this in mind though - From what I can tell, the SacBee commenters are a lot like the industry guys who were on the panel with you - my how their tune has changed. Circa 2005, 2006, early 2007 when the SacBee articles and the industry "experts" were not in touch with reality, so too were the SacBee commenters. Perfect Storm would get thrashed in the comments, and look who was right?
They all drank the Kool-aid, so I wouldn't put too much weight in whatever they have to say to you now. You did fine :)
"Perfect Storm would get thrashed in the comments, and look who was right?"
I'm still amazed at how accurate his predictions were. I wish he'd write a paper on how he came up with it -or- admit it was a lucky guess. I'd pay money to know the methodology.
I agree that the story was too short and choppy.
Ramos was brutally honest and frankly I found it refreshing. I have no beef with him giving his clients what is the best advice possible for them. Yeah, we can blame the people losing their homes for their own stupidity, but it wasn't any of them that tanked the market and the economy. The banks repeated these screw ups over and over and over.
I did just about choke when the mortgage broker said, in essence, don't worry about Alt-A and Option ARMs, nothing to see here. Modifications are going to save us??? Please, please tell me that this roundtable took place before the feds came out and told everyone that the modifications have been a miserable failure.
G spot,
I think the big public release came out about a week after the roundtable. Many of us had seen hints in print that it was not going well but that article was a CTJ momement for many.
The article was choppy and probably would have been much more informative if they took it sub-topic at a time and did a round table on each. Trying to cram that much content coming from several topical experts into a 3 page column added more confusion then enlightenment for most folks.
I thought BT did well and I can tell where they sliced off and condensed her answers. I imagine that was frustrating.
I also imagine that not leaning over the table to smack some heads together while chanting "WTH were you people thinking?" was frustrating too >; )
The format was that of a roundtable, not a point counter point kinda thing. I didn't want to interrupt and monopolize the conversation by arguing every point(its just not my nature).
I cringed at several of the comments made (like Alt-A and option ARM not an issue, or not spotting bottom etc.) since the data I have seen indicate otherwise.
I will give the mortgage guy the benefit of the doubt on the mods. Perhaps he would like to revise and extend his remarks given the recent news. Because he sounds like the same people poo-pooing the subprime debacle back in 2007.
I also cringed at the comment to the effect that once we know we're at the bottom, we're already on the way up. This is horrible advice for this market. First, real estate is not like stocks. It doesn't turn on a dime and there aren't 10% in a week rallies. Second, as I think you pointed out, BT, we're almost certainly looking at flat prices for some time.
I'm telling everyone I know who is looking for their first home not to rush. Get your ducks in a row, improve credit, save for a downpayment, and watch your chosen neighborhoods closely. There is absolutely no reason for anyone to rush in if they are not ready.
I am not in a rush, just the numbers have to make sense. There still are a lot of people in
"the business" not accepting the current situation.
Case in point, I just got a comment from an Agent the other day that at the price I was offering they would buy the home themselves. I said 'Oh,..... well', and then he was silent. He wasn't going to buy the home.
He didn't argue my logic for coming up with my offer, just didn't like it and referred to bubble prices. Sorry, not goin' buy it. He even said he had an offer for X amount already... I said I hope you sell it.
We ended the conversation cordially with me keeping an eye one the home, this is the third time we spoke after a corresponding price reduction. There will be more...
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