Monday, December 29, 2008

Nov-Dec 2008 Month's Inventory for Sacramento Metro Area

Well, I couldn't help myself, I gathered inventory data for the Sacramento Metro area this month. Below is a comparison of this year versus last year. Month's inventory is way down. For most zips its below the 6 month mark, which is traditionally heralded as equilibrium.

Yet, if we are truly at equilibrium, prices should not be dropping at a double digit pace. So this leads to my big question...is 6 months inventory still equilibrium? With few buyer's who can qualify for loans, I am inclined to think that 4 months is the new 6 months.

Data is sorted by the change in month's inventory from year to year (third column). Inventory data is collected from ZipRealty for single family homes, and the resale data is from DataQuick via the SacBee.

Hope everyone had a happy and safe holiday.

4 comments:

sacramentia said...

I'm glad you posted this. It felt like inventory was dropping in the neighborhoods that I look in. I'm also not seeing the same amount of good deals in the last 2 months or so.

Are the banks hanging on to inventory? The market doesn't make sense to me right now. Housing tracker shows median asking prices up for the last 6 weeks, not by much, but up.

anon1137 said...

I'm seeing more foreclosures in midtown/East Sac, and I think the stock market collapse is going to thin the pool of buyers for higher-priced homes.

Deflationary Jane said...

1137,

OK it's not just me then that is seeing the shift in the east sac listings. It seems they are getting their first whiff of desparation.

Now if those zipcodes get hit in any meaningful way (which is unavoidable imo), then watch what happens to places where there was a flurry of foreclosure buying recently. They'll get a second dip down (ouch) and the ROIs crack beyond repair unless they plan to hold longgggggggggg (second ouch).

anon1137 said...

Hey Gwen. You might be right. And I don't suppose that higher unemployment is going to help the rental market either. I sobbed a little for the hapless RE investor just now as I typed that.