Friday, August 17, 2007

Shedding Light on the Shadow?

For some time now, shadow inventory has been a topic of speculation on Lander & Max’s blogs. In addition, there has been discussion about what is and isn’t present in the data we all rely on. My curiosity got the better of me, so I asked my Realtor for some MLS sales stats from Jan 1, 2007 to present. I compared the MLS data with the data on SacBee’s site from DataQuick.

While this doesn’t specifically identify the shadow inventory everyone is talking about, it does help identify what type of activity is occurring and by whom.

After considerable data cleaning and comparison efforts, at long last I have some general stats to share. Of course there are plenty of caveats, which are listed below.

The data compares Folsom and El Dorado Hills single family home sales in DataQuick from Jan 1, 2007 to June 20, 2007 with MLS for that same period. In general the MLS contains about 2/3 of all sales (69%) including some new construction sales. Approximately 17% of all homes sold during that period are new construction. Please note that these results are not likely to be indicative of the rest of Sacramento.

MLS & DataQuick - I did my best to match up the MLS data with DataQuick. However I didn’t diligently paw through the remaining records manually in the MLS to confirm it wasn’t a match.
MLS Only – These records didn’t match up with DataQuick. There were a couple that looked to be addresses of the new construction. I did find some condos that were not identified as such and pulled them out.
DataQuick Other – These records didn’t match up with the MLS, and didn’t appear to be new construction. Some would be FSBO, others are the initial foreclosure sale to the bank of a home that was later sold via MLS. However these two categories can’t account for the full data set. Not sure if the rest can be considered shadow or not.
Listed Once on MLS and Twice on DataQuick – These appear to be distressed properties that are sold to the bank, and then sold via MLS. The initial sale to the bank is considered under “DataQuick Other.”
New Construction - I did my best to identify the new construction, based on year and some other general indicators in DataQuick but this data is more of an approximation. Some of these records were in the MLS, but the vast majority were in DataQuick.


Anonymous said...

I'm having trouble following this post to your conclusion...

buying time said...

Only 2 of every 3 homes sold is in the MLS. Which leads me to believe there is a lot of for sale inventory not listed MLS either.

Sippn said...

As there always has been... but at least when you compare old MLS numbers to new MLS numbers, they are somewhat consistant. (and by the way single family includes condos)