Wednesday, September 3, 2008

Stressed Out - 6 Month Update

Its now been exactly 6 months since I started collecting weekly foreclosure and preforeclosure stats from I do not use a precise methodology, just a raw count of the number of active properties in 95762 & 95630 (the site has duplicates, and miss some listings but I feel the overall trends are indicative).

As you can see, the rate of increase in the NODs seems to be moderating a bit, especially for EDH. Since I began collecting statistics, EDH NODs are up 33% and foreclosures are up 262%. In Folsom, NODs are up 94% and foreclosures 215%.

Using a 3 month lag factor for the NODs to foreclosure, it looks like we are at a 30-40% "cure rate" (BTW my cure rate calculation is totally bogus since it doesn't track individual homes, just the ratio of NODs to foreclosures three months later).

1 comment:

mcb44 said...

Adding sales as a data trend line would provide a worthwhile dimension, but what would be very interesting would be an additional trend line showing the % of sales that were REO.

I suspect the data would show that sales of non forclosure properties are low and not improving.

Adding total sales as reported in the Bee, would be pretty easy, I'm not sure whether getting the % forclosures is feasible.