Wednesday, June 27, 2007

Blackstone - O Catalyst! My Catalyst!

Buckle your seat belts boys and girls, its going to be a wild ride from here on out. The 800lb gorilla in the closet has made an appearance......the 900 acre Blackstone community opened their first sales office on Saturday.

The new places at Blackstone are all solar (yippee!), and there will be a nice community clubhouse. It is very appealing, and at an average of $194 a square foot, why would you buy a resale tract home when you can get a new one for less?

To put this in perspective, for Centex's 2744 square foot house, only 2 resales beat their base price (their prices include $20,000 incentives). Of course the HOA and district taxes are rather hefty, around $250, but they include the clubhouse, which has a gym and swimming. I kinda see the solar power as an environmentally friendly discount on the taxes and HOA. Many of the resales that they are competing with also around $150 in extra monthly fees as well.

As I have theorized elsewhere, the new home builders are going to lead the market down. They have to have regular cash infusions, and can't afford to carry inventory the way emotionally involved owners can, so they have been forced to sell at a discount. Blackstone is an enormous development, which means more inventory competing for the same small pool of buyers. This is the catalyst I have been waiting for (Blackstone homes were supposed to begin selling in early spring...which was part of the reason I was forecasting a downward acceleration in prices by early summer).

O Captain! my Captain! our fearful trip is done;
The ship has weather’d every rack, the prize we sought is won;
The port is near, the bells I hear, the people all exulting,

14 comments:

Anonymous said...

Where is this located at? Centex homes in El Dorado?

Thanks, Brian

Buying Time said...

for info see wwww.blackstoneeldorado.com

Unknown said...

so centex prices start at $460K
Lennar has not published their prices yet.

I don't mean to burst your bubble but $460k still is a lot of money... oh and the asbestos thingee too.

Anonymous said...

Very impressive! Never thought Whitman was predicting the real estate bubble but I suppose its a valid interpretation. :)

Anonymous said...

That is a lot of money to live out in BFE. If you work out there then it makes sense to live there.. With that kind of money you should be able to live wherever you want in the central valley even at todays prices...
One thing though, I haven't read the studies regarding Asbestos fiber releases in Eldorado, but I worked in asbestos litigation (defense) for 7 years and combed thousands of meso/other cancer patient records during that time and I would not knowingly live near large natural deposits where there is heavy construction. while the majority of the cases had links to occupational exposure many where of unknown origin (although they sued anybody there aunt Tilly shook hands with who may or may not have had an asbestos containing popcorn ceiling in a home they lived in for 6 months in 1972) I did work on a few cases where the only real exposure must have been naturally occurring asbestos up in Calaveras County. Meso takes 15 to 30 years to develop, it is a horrible way to die, it is a death sentence with a year to 3 years to live. It's only known cause is asbestos exposure. I don't recall witch variety is found up there but I do recall that it was NOT Chrysotile, a form generally thought to be less harmful, less likely to stick in the lungs.

Anonymous said...

lol, I meant which not WITCH.

Buying Time said...

Semloh & Anonymous -

I am tracking with you on both accounts...still to expensive, and potential asbestos exposure issues. These are the two main reasons we haven't plunked down our deposit for this development.

I am in the process of trying to identify other suitable areas in Sac that 1) have good schools and low crime, 2) not a flood risk, 3) no asbestos exposure, and 4) nice community aspects. Suggestions are always welcome!

Anonymous said...

Well, as far as natural asbestos deposits, anywhere already built out in Sacramento proper should be safe, of course, if you buy a house built before say, 1980, I would be extremely careful about Asbestos insulation, floor tiles, spray on ceilings etc.. which is all safe while the asbestos is encapsulated but becomes airborne when damaged/worn or even removed.

Anonymous said...

I agree that the new builders will lead the way regarding prices, good to see they are going forward with the development.

The Centex homes are a little too close to Latrobe road, future growth will increase traffic noise dramatically. Waiting to see the other builders, especially if they include solar.

Also, the Centex plans have only two car garages. This is a major drawback. It will be interesting to see what Cambridge and Parkland have to offer once the ball gets rolling.

Asbestos. Still out on that one and doing my research for personal reasons. I have lived in and around EDH, Folsom and Cameron Park since 1979. There has been a lot of construction and associated dust that I have witnessed.

Cmyst said...

Where's the bit about the solar? I read their website and couldn't find anything about it.

Buying Time said...

Lennar is running the project. It's touted on their site. We found out about it when we visited the Centex office on Monday.

Cmyst said...

Well, I've got to say that I like their solar plus homes. It makes a lot of sense.
In general, I don't trust new construction and I don't like the endless stucco Mediterranean theme, but if the price was a bit more reasonable than the ones they're offering in Roseville, it would be a sore temptation.
(Hey, if any builders are out there eavesdropping, how about energy-efficient solar modern/contemporary design?)

Cmyst said...

Well, I've got to say that I like their solar plus homes. It makes a lot of sense.
In general, I don't trust new construction and I don't like the endless stucco Mediterranean theme, but if the price was a bit more reasonable than the ones they're offering in Roseville, it would be a sore temptation.
(Hey, if any builders are out there eavesdropping, how about energy-efficient solar modern/contemporary design?)

... said...

SOlar raises the price and you know... are you willing to pay the difference? (after credits, still $10s of 000's)


Average Buyer, your description is only met between the freeways in Sac Co... north of 50 and south/east of 80... in the $400s you have access to Arden/Carmichael/Fair Oaks.... older housing stock, but what you save in gas, mellow roos, hoa fees, etc.... you can spend in the good resturants. And skip the traffic bottlenecks at the Placer and El Dorado county lines.

Only problem, the Bee charts still show appreciation.... darn!