Friday, December 28, 2007

November/December Month's Inventory


November sales are from DataQuick via the Sacramento Bee. Inventory is from ZipRealty for single family homes.

11 comments:

mr big said...

Did you guys see the new home sales report this morning? Down 9% m/m.Realtors are still claiming there was no bubble.They beleive their own bullsh@t now adays.I am hunkered down over here in roseville near the galleria.I have a 1br place for 6 months.My cats are going nuts in here but we will be liveing it up soon.I will be heading back to arizona to buy a new place.For < 120k I will have a new house for these cats.

Husman said...

Looking at the Folsom data makes me wonder how many of those homes were "sold" back to the bank, not actual sales, thus skewing the numbers.

Does the data pull exclude homes sold back to the bank?

Buying Time said...

But if you dig a little deeper, new home sales were actually up in the West.

The sales from DataQuick do include sales to the bank. See the following link for an in depth look at DQ versus MLS.

big n rich said...

husman

Not sure if these homes are really "sold" back to the bank.When a property is taken back by the bank it is foreclosed on and becomes real estate owned(REO).
This does not register as a sale in the mls.the delinquent buyer is not really selling back to the bank.They are simply defaulting on their loans and the banks has the house as collateral(trust deed and promissary note).In this falling market the collateral is not worth as much as the bank loaned on the property originally.The bank then loses money when it sells as reo.The banks are takeing huge losses right now.

When the bank sells the property to a willing and able buyer that becomes a sale.I see a lot of reo's listed with traditional real estate brokers and some banks have their own brokers to unload thier reo property.

Gwynster said...

Husman,

That was my question too since I can find numerous examples of "sales" on the SacBee site and it turns out they were the TD recording a transfer back to the bank. I know I find a lot of them in West Sacramento and Woodland.

When they were compiling data during periods with record low foreclosures, it was fudged into the +/- margin. Now with new records being set monthly, These TDs are much larger portion of the total. They need to come up with a methodology to pull those TDs out but frankly they need to keep them in there to make the data look better then it is so I don't expect any movement on that front.

Husman said...

BT, thanks for the link to the prior discussion.

Gwynster, I too have many examples of 'sales' recorded while searching the Sacbee site. And, yes, the numbers look much better with the 'loan amounts' of the REOs recorded as sales. Very deceptive give the small sample size.

Also, I called DQ to find out if there is a 'flag' to identify REO homes in the data. They were closed for the holidays.

Gwynster said...

DQ uses the TD as the push, like OFHEO does which is the problem. They just look to see if there was an arms length transaction which take the ReFis out but leaves the TDs in. They've been pestered about this for years.

What gets me is the volume of REOs in Woodland where they disappear from the MLS and yet no sale is recorded in the SacBee. As REO sales, they should be included as comps yet the data is left out of the pool.

Buying Time said...

Do I smell a business opportunity here? Now if I could just figure out how to get people to pay for this data....I could quit my day job =)

What does TD stand for (Title something or other)?

Gwynster said...

Transfer Deed.

Giacomo said...

Cool tops the list again! Even if we sold twice as many, we'd still be number one.

It's all about the high asking prices out here. Apparently this is where the really, really stubborn people come to live.

Paul said...

Gwynster: Am I correct in understanding that bonafide REO sales are not being listed as sales/comps by MLS? Ever? If so, that means MLS sales comps are useless because in the areas were 50% of the sales are of REO's, the lowest 50% of the sales are not shown in MLS comps. Now if I were the MLS, that is exactly what I would do to try to keep housing prices inflated for my Realtor member/owners, but that doesn't make it right!

Now it was news to me that DataQuick is including TD's as a "sale" both in terms of volume of sales and prices of sales, but I believe what you folks are saying. This suggests to me that the DataQuick is becoming less and less relevant each month, as the number of bonafide sales declines, and the number of TD's increases.