The moment I await each month has arrived. Monthly sales from DataQuick has been posted by the Sac Bee. Below is the breakout by zip of the month's inventory. The data is not as rosy as it appeared previously. Some of these numbers are considerably lower than previous estimates because I removed the condos and multi family units from my inventory numbers this month. This change essentially shaved a month of inventory off the weighted total calculation (from 8.8 to 7.8).
I have ordered the data by month's inventory to give a better picture of where we stand. There are still 19 zips, or around 35% of the zips, that are below the 6 month mark. For those of you just tuning in, 6 months tends to be the rule of thumb equilibrium between buyer and seller, more inventory favors buyers, while less favor's sellers.
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8 comments:
I think you may be underestimating the % of for sale by owners (FSBO) sales and therefore underestimating month's inventory (MOI). For example:
May 2007 existing SFH sales in Sacramento County:
DataQuick (MLS + non-MLS): 1,240
Trendgraphix (MLS only): 917
= Non-MLS Sales: 323 (or 26% of DQ sales).
According to TrendGraphix, MLS inventory in May was 9,346.
So MLS Inventory/MLS sales = 10.2 months supply.
In contrast: MLS Inventory/MLS sales + non-MLS sales = 7.5 months
Certainly new home listings in the MLS would balance that out to a certain extent, but I doubt its that high. Perhaps Agent Bubble could give us an idea of what % of MLS inventory is comprised of new home listings.
SAR does break down MLS sales by zip. That would be a more apples to apples comparison IMHO. Unfortunately, it looks like Placer and EL Dorado realtor associations break down by "zone" rather than zip (or is that the same thing???). Isn't data scraping fun?
You meant the FSBO inventory (not sales)...?
My current calculation is:
Inventory (MLS only SFH from ZipRealty) by ZIP
divided by
DataQuick (MLS+non-MLS) sales.
In any case, that's a lot of Non-MLS sales in May 2007. I had no idea there was so much. Do you check to see if they are comparing the same zips? I have yet to see inventory/sales numbers from different sources that agree....sigh. I know the auctions add to a lot of sales, and the bank repos. But 26% is still one in every 4 sales!
Its almost as complicated as trying to calculate delay in my industry....aviation!
Yes, I meant FSBO inventory.
And I should have said FSBO + FSBB (For Sale By Bank) inventory.
There's that darn NAtomas zip code again with all that inventory - explains the price drops -
Now AB... fess up. are you really looking for cheap or ? I hear your still looking at Folsom and EDH - hard to get both.
Lander, et al, I think the non-mls sales numbers Dataquick is picking up are new tract homes (rarely in MLS)
Also Rassmussen Friday quoting Foreclosures.com at about 3400 YTD foreclosures - makes that other number from the other day look not credible.
I think the non-mls sales numbers Dataquick is picking up are new tract homes
I guess it depends on how DataQuick defines a "new" home. The DQ sales figure I cited above purportedly measures existing SFH only and would not include new tract homes.
Existing SFH: 1,240
Existing Condos: 42
New Homes: 344
All Homes: 1,626
If it's true that new homes "rarely" show up in the MLS, then MLS inventory/MLS sales would be the most accurate (apples to apples) measure of supply IMHO.
"If it's true that new homes "rarely" show up in the MLS, then MLS inventory/MLS sales would be the most accurate (apples to apples) measure of supply IMHO."
I think the MLS is biased toward higher priced listings and sales, since it doesn't have many of the distressed listings. So I don't feel it gives a true picture of the downward pressure in sales and prices we are experiencing. And of course, as an average buyer, I don't have access to it.
In the end it means my calculation for month's inventory is conservative.
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