Since metro averages are so deceptive, I took the DataQuick resale data from August of 2002 courtesy of the Sac Bee website, and compared it with May of 2007. Keep in mind, a lot has happened in those 5 years. The mix of houses in some zip codes has changed dramatically in some of the suburbs (hence the median price and price per sqft may not track the same).
They are ordered by zip code for easy reference. Zips with over 75% appreciation in the median price are in Red, those between 50% and 75% are in orange, and those with less than 30% (which I consider more or less reasonable when you take into account inflation and interest rates) are in green. Unfortunately only one of those...sigh.
Please note: This data is not adjusted for inflation or mortgage rates, its just the percentage difference between the two medians. Inflation and mortgage rates probably account for 25-30%.....the rest is irrational exuberance.
I threw out zips several zips were the data was sparse.
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7 comments:
Spiffy chart!
Well there you go, by your criteria, Natomas is your choice.
I'm more of a believer in using 2000 as a baseline. As much as I can tell, 2002-2003 may have been the natural peak of the real estate cycle if not for the unprecedented changes in lending practices.
2002 is not my baseline. If I'm giving someone inflation and appreciation annually, I go back to 98-99.
I know some will hold out for more...but I have a 2-3 year deadline. I want to be in a house (our house not a rental) by the time my daughter is ready to attend kindergarten.
To be quite honest, I would have liked to provide earlier baselines as well, but Aug 2002 was as far back as the Sac Bee data goes.
"but I have a 2-3 year deadline"
2-3 years from now? If so, we could definately be under 2002 prices by then with all of the current goings on (MBS imploding, lenders imploding, standards tightening, forclosures exploding, builders still building, etc.)
PR - yes they'll still be building, but not on all the land options they walked away from in the past 12 months.
At least rents in the Sac area are only increasing at 1/2 the statewide rate of 5%.
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