There are a lot of for sale signs cluttering folks yards in some of the places we have looked, and in others they are rare. So I did a little checking to see what the total turnover rates look like in various parts of the greater Sacramento area. On average for the zips I looked at, the rates are pretty high, one in 20 houses sold in 2006. That seems like a lot of churn to me....and 2006 was a slow year! (see last column in chart below)
I also looked to see how the churn compared to the for sale to inventory ratio. Highly correlated by my calculations, .8 (1 is completely correlated, and 0 is not correlated). Which means in general these neighborhoods have a more transient population.
Data sources: SacBees DataQuick from March 2007 and all of 2006 Sales (resales). For sale numbers from ZipRealty (thanks Gwenster). The total housing inventory came from LA Times via DataQuick (thanks sittin this one out). The LA Times only posted total inventories for zips with over 30 NODs, they were reporting NODs as a percentage of total inventory. There are some notable zips missing from this chart, like Roseville, Lincoln, Granite Bay, Rocklin and Davis (which is probably a good thing!). The chart is ordered by the for sale compared to total inventory.
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1 comment:
There is a neighborhood in Woodland where they are multiple properties for sale on every street. One one street, there were 3 indentical ones in a row for sale with a fourth on one end for rent.
The sad thing is those 3 are 3/2/1s 1100 for 349K where the new Centex development is just around the corner with 3/2/2 1675 sqft for 310k.
That's some scary math and backs up your prediction of builders leading the the market down.
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