Peaks and Valleys - Half Way There

According to SacBee sales data in March, Folsom is now off its Sept 2005 peak by 8%. EDH is off its Sept 2006 peak by 19%. EDH falling harder and faster than Folsom is consistent with the market outlook rationale posted earlier.

So how much do these markets have to fall before they get back to reasonable levels? Hard to say exactly. But if you assume that August 2002 was a reasonable level, you can estimate an average growth rate (I used generous 4%) and compare to the peak listed above.

This calculation yields a 39% drop from peak in Folsom and a 41% drop in EDH. Considering we are already at 19% for EDH, we are almost half way there!

Calculations were all based on the SacBee resale single family home data (originally obtained from DataQuick Information Systems) going back to August 2002 for Folsom and EDH.