Tuesday, January 22, 2008

What a Difference a Zip Makes

Since its the slow season, thought I would do a status check to see where we are in relation historical data. The SacBee has monthly data by zip all the way back to August 2002. So I compared the median price from December 2007 to the August 2002 data. I threw out any zips that didn't have more than 5 sales in either period. There is also an inflation adjusted column (this time I got true inflation data from www.inflationdata.com), as well as a change from peak column to see what ground we have covered so far. I spot checked the data, for the zips I know, to make sure things look right, but this is by no means a professional job.

The table below is ranked by the Nominal change since August of 2002. Of course its not always wise to make comparisons based on medians (since its a quirky little stat) and the mix of home in some of these zip codes has changed considerably over the last 6 years.

I was rather surprised at how few zips have escaped the downturn. Only a handful showed drops less than 20% from peak.

Not that I am one to have regrets in life, but I should have invested in RE in the South Lake Tahoe area instead of spending all my hard earned $$ (and some of Sallie Mae's) on graduate school.


sacramentia said...

BT- This is an interesting chart but from most of what I've read the start of the bubble was 1997. Why did you pick 2002?

And I know this comment will tick some people off, but Edh shows relative strength from this graph too.

Buying Time said...

Tia - Cause I only had data back to 2002.

We all interpret the data based on what we want to see.

I actually though that this chart showed the opposite...EDH and Folsom were below quite a few zips that I figured wouldn't hold up as well.

earl said...

Let have a kegger and talk housing!!!!I'm looking for investment partners.

Paul said...

Looks like a lot of work! Thanks.

And now that the Feds have lowered interest rates and the administration and Congress are going to give everyone money for nothing, I predict that housing prices will start to turn around in February-April 2008, when people start to get those $1,600 checks. With houses "on sale" for 25% off, there has never been a better time to buy!

sacramentia said...

BT - I agree with your comment, I was referring to how much room there is to fall based on how far things have fallen.

I went through 16 homes over the weekend and have to say that there were more people looking than I have seen since 05. And also they were looking at homes that were priced far below the current medians for the area as REOs.

By the time the numbers come out in March reflecting the deals being negotiated now, I think medians for the Sac MSA are going to look like they fell very very fast this month. However, anecdotally, I'm not seeing the same desperation in EDH.

What is everyone else seeing away from the keyboard?

Sippn said...

That could be but lower rates are waking up the upper end buyer, who typically starts in January anyway.

horizontal_integration said...

Need to add 95811 as this covers most of midtown Sacramento as of July 2007.