Friday, June 20, 2008

May June Month's Inventory

While we may not agree on what is happening and why. At the very least, we should be able to agree that something is happening. The market is vastly different that it was a year ago. Inventory is down, prices are down, and sales are up.

The result, month's inventory is almost half of what it was last year at this time (obviously 30% off last year's prices makes a big difference!). The Sacramento Metro area is now down to 4.5 month's inventory. This is below the traditional 6 month mark that is thought to be a balanced market between buyer and seller. The zips below are sorted by month's inventory.

Almost everyone I know that had been waiting to buy a home, has now done so this spring (including several housing bubble bloggers). So what I am wondering...... will the current demand level be sustainable? Or is this just a really big big bounce?

SFH inventory comes from ZipRealty, and sales comes from the SacBee via DataQuick.


Patient Renter said...

Almost everyone I know that had been waiting to buy a home, has now done so

I think that's a key observation :)

duncan6894 said...

I think that this will run out as a big bounce. There are still alot of REO's that are not being put on the market, as well as the Op-ARM stuff coming over the next few years. Will prices keep going lower, hard to say, but I still think that some of the real bubble places haven't been hit hard yet.

selmoh said...

my take: the potential downside is much higher then the potential upside.

don't try to time the market to hit the bottom. When you buy, make sure you will be there for 5+ years.

Now here is one big unknown: if house prices have declined that much, what will happened with a recession and higher interest rates ?

that could spell big trouble down the line.