Wednesday, June 4, 2008

Sacramento is Now Undervalued!

According to my favorite housing valuation study by National City Global Insight, we in the Sacramento Metro area are now considered undervalued by -2.5%!

This study was for Q1 2008, so we have dropped even more since then. Given the bouyancy that is occuring in the lower price ranges, their data seems feasible, at least on a general level. Although the higher end hasn't budged much, and still seems way overvalued.


Sold in '05 said...

Yea right!

The comps just keep getting lower with every sale and that stat backs it up. Look at it as more of an indicator of how far beyond "fair value" that the average transaction has moved. Something along the lines of every home sold is marked 2.5% below the last one that sold. OR... If you want to sell your house today, price it 2.5% below the current comps.

We are in a downward price spiral that is finally gaining some momentum due in large part to the banks capitulating and trying to move their inventory. By the end of summer, maybe the average seller will also have seen the light, stop listening to the realtwhores and realize that it will be at least three more years before values begin to rise again. The REIC cheerleaders will not be able to talk this away.

The shoe that hasn't dropped yet is how bad the entire national economy is getting. A lot of work has gone into hiding the problems and bailing out bankrupt corporations with taxpayer money, but after the fall election, all bets are off. We're already looking at 6% unemployment locally, what will 8 - 10% do for the housing market next year?

Those that are jumping in now are just helping hammer prices down for next years buyers (who may also lose value if the economy is still in the tank).

Deflationary Jane said...

Many still can't afford a house so my BS meter is going off.
It's interesting in St. Louis. The campus is all happy that one of the VP debates will be here in Oct. I love the campus! It's what a university is supposed to look like. Imagine an ivy league looking campus surrounded by the fab 40s to the south, Land Park to the west and Curtis park to the northeast and midtown to the direct north. East is a combination of central park and gold gate park - Central because it's huge, bigger then CP really, and golden gate because of the museums. Now imagine a big brick 1900s house 600 yds from campus and a block from the park for 200k. Can you tell I'm in love yet?

There are definately bad area and their version of south sac is up north. Their news and crime rate isn't as bad as I thought, about even with Sacramento these days

I lived through my first twister warning though everything is happening to the north of me. Today it's flash flood warnings. StL is getting its summer heat and hummidity early. I think I need gills but it's not as bad as I thought it would be either.

Mr. Jane is supposed to fly in tomorrow so we can sightsee a little and decide on a rental.

smf said...

The higher being stubborn is a bit of a misnomer.

I have seen many houses (~800K) where you ask yourself 'why?', only to realize that at that price it is already BELOW their 2004/2005 selling price.

Of course, we bought our home for about $150K less than its 2005 purchase price, which was already about $100K less than similar homes that sold in 2004/2005.

A glimpse of MLS also reveals the beginning of short sales for those high-end homes.

Sippn said...

DJ - remember when I used to say - "NO it isn't so"

anon1137 said...

DJ, is that you Gwenster? So you bailed out of CA because of the real estate prices?

Deflationary Jane said...

1137, we are off like a prom dress.
It was a combination of things but they all pointed we're done. BT knows what's up. If we were still in our early 30s, we could have stuck it out but time was not on our side.

Sippin, I hate to admit that I don't know what you are referring to. Could you hum a few bars for me?

anon1137 said...

It sounds like you thought it through and made a good decision for the two of you, so congratulations. I agree that the RE market here isn't going to get back to a sane place anytime soon.

Good luck. I hope everything works out for you in St. Louis. Try to talk some sense into those republicans out there, OK? Something like, "No, that married gay couple down the street *isn't* going to recruit your kids into the homosexual club."